This week: market technicals, investor sentiment, margin debt, flows and positioning, REIT relative performance, QE to QT, gold vs stocks, perils of stockpicking...
These were some very interesting charts. Once again, you've delivered the goods that require thoughtful reflection. It's been said; You either pay attention or you pay the price!
I believe you are correct in saying; ...down is probably the path of least resistance given the bearish market + macro momentum.
Thanks, I like that saying! Yeah, obviously I could be wrong if there is some sort of positive surprise e.g. more resilient economy/eps than expected, pivot/pause, geopolitical good news, China (covid/stimulus), etc. But the balance of observable trends/data point downwards.
Yeah, risks are a little more balanced vs Dec 2021, but still I see no reason to be increasing exposure at this point. Framework still leads me to AA mix that tilts towards bonds and cash
I think key is whether the Fed will pivot / pause. And for now, the answer is not yet. So more pain. Until something big & systemic breaks or the Biden Admin forces the Fed.
Yeah exactly, monetary tides are going out, economy rolling over, inflation still high (for now), and valuations haven't dropped enough to compensate for all that
These were some very interesting charts. Once again, you've delivered the goods that require thoughtful reflection. It's been said; You either pay attention or you pay the price!
I believe you are correct in saying; ...down is probably the path of least resistance given the bearish market + macro momentum.
Look out below!
Thanks, I like that saying! Yeah, obviously I could be wrong if there is some sort of positive surprise e.g. more resilient economy/eps than expected, pivot/pause, geopolitical good news, China (covid/stimulus), etc. But the balance of observable trends/data point downwards.
Looks like their is still time to reduce your equity exposure?
Yeah, risks are a little more balanced vs Dec 2021, but still I see no reason to be increasing exposure at this point. Framework still leads me to AA mix that tilts towards bonds and cash
I think key is whether the Fed will pivot / pause. And for now, the answer is not yet. So more pain. Until something big & systemic breaks or the Biden Admin forces the Fed.
Yeah exactly, monetary tides are going out, economy rolling over, inflation still high (for now), and valuations haven't dropped enough to compensate for all that