As long as Mice, Men, and Bots confuse Powell with Rodney Dangerfield and/or Powell stops taking careful aim at his own feet with unscripted remarks, then crab-ways it is as likely as not. Then again, maybe the SPY is the latest meme-stock? Suppose we'll know the answer to that when the SP500 gets close to 4800. Either way there are trillion$ more squirreled-away, I suppose, of that manna from helicopters (or heaven for those that insist on Thanking the Lord, despite copious evidence one way or the other, for all things good and bad, great and small) yet to be destroyed. Just part of the process (like when the Wiley Coyote runs unawares off a cliff's edge, pauses with a bewildered look down, and then looks back up at the fourth-wall, just before his creator(s) pencil in the atmospheric laugh-lines symbolizing a precipitous decent) every great (w/r)eckoning goes through? In the end, we each probably should count ourselves lucky to be here for the greatest show on Earth. Interesting times.

Good chart selection as usual. Here's humble head-scratcher for your consideration: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI3

No stress. It's rhetorical. As an aside, we are told this the third ("3") iteration (of improvement?) for this indicator.

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hmm, peculiar. That's one reason I don't like to use other people's black-box composite indicators... I don't know what's in it + some things can be relevant today and irrelevant tomorrow, also data errors can show up, and so-on.

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Wouldn't surprise me to see "discontinued" applied to that once valued indicator, but, who knows, they do publish a lot, those academics, so maybe they'll explain it to us one of these days. As in one of these days or years after the explanation/update will no longer be of any use to the longest of long-term investors that puzzled over their erstwhile trusted metric. And it's not like there aren't Fed regional bank alternatives now days. Sadly, I haven't had time to review their usual copious dreary documentation. To busy rummaging through the Bear's detritus for bits and pieces with some margin of safety left on the bones. The SPY has already recouped so much lost ground there isn't much to do but wait for the technicals to confirm a Bull is back, or not ;). Don't want to violate "Rule #1" after all.

One man's black box is another engineer's white box.

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I would really like to hear someone explain, or attempt to explain, the chart from the St Louis Fed you provided the link to. Head-scratcher is right!

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Hello. Among the many links I visited on my travels around the world today here are limited (because this isn't my forum after all) number that sort of relate to your "explain" and suggest the spirit of my original post.


-- https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-08/recession-fears-are-overblown-read-this-before-you-trust-the-experts

and next to last, but first, my favorite quote from link #2 is filed under "Sun, nothing new under",

"This economic commentary identifies factors that help explain exchange-rate patterns in recent years and concludes that none of these factors provides a complete or consistent explanation of the behavior of the dollar over this period. This review emphasizes the need to exercise caution when attempting to project exchange-rate trends."

-- https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/economic%20commentary/1985/ec%2019850901%20the%20dollar%20in%20the%20eighties%20pdf.pdf

and last, since it led me to "next to last", and it is probably very much why we both find ourselves at TDC charting the storm tossed global macro seas, in addition to being in keeping with my original comment's first parenthetical meandering bit of religiosity I present you with a cautionary reminder about leverage, the "original financial sin",

-- https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-27/strong-dollar-always-clobbers-developing-nations

You, like myself, probably noticed folks gainsaying the possibility Powell/Binden would crumble under pressure from EM-'allies' almost the day after the FED started raising rates? Maybe they are right, but they are still many months to early to raise that possibility. You know what they say about being right to early, however, I did come across what I'm guessing is probably a standard gripe (when USD rises) in an english language asian 'newspaper' today about ASEAN members increasing lines of credit independent of the US dollar for the purposes of oil purchases. Don't remember the number$ involved (which probably means it wasn't a needle mover?). Anyway, this might help with your decision making when rolling the dice on country level ETFs,

-- https://www.cfr.org/cfr-sovereign-risk-tracker

-- https://www.cfr.org/global/global-monetary-policy-tracker/p37726

Now I'm heading back to South Korea to watch "Black Dog: Being a Teacher" on Netflix ;)

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