This week: correction drivers, Bitcoin base, seasonality signals, speculative sentiment switch, yield curves, inflation, stagflation, and health of healthcare...
Lots of good information, thanks for your work! Two things that stood out for me last week were the weak breadth of the SPX and the discrepancy between a declining VIX and a rising MOVE.
bonds are in full-blown breakdown, while stocks meanwhile are whistling past the graveyard. As noted, stocks can withstand a certain amount of rising bond yields, but the balance is easily tipped the tighter the equity risk premium gets squeezed. The VIX doesn't necessarily need to rise to close the gap, but that's one channel or mechanism by which equities could do the heavy lifting...
Lots of good information, thanks for your work! Two things that stood out for me last week were the weak breadth of the SPX and the discrepancy between a declining VIX and a rising MOVE.
bonds are in full-blown breakdown, while stocks meanwhile are whistling past the graveyard. As noted, stocks can withstand a certain amount of rising bond yields, but the balance is easily tipped the tighter the equity risk premium gets squeezed. The VIX doesn't necessarily need to rise to close the gap, but that's one channel or mechanism by which equities could do the heavy lifting...