Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 24 May 2026
This week: equal upside, the SpaceX factor, space stock allocations, index inclusion, IPO market trends and signals, new Fed Chair, rates outlook, tail risk flag...
Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
The equal-weighted S&P500 has broken out to new highs.
Space stocks are soaring following the SpaceX IPO filing.
SpaceX (SPCX) could end up with an index weight of 3%*.
The mega-IPO wave is a sign of the times (late-cycle signal).
The swearing-in of a new Fed Chair might be a bearish omen.
Overall, the bull market got a bit more bully this week with the breakout of the equal-weighted index. But the arrival of a new Fed Chair and IPO boom points to a more volatile horizon…
1. Equal Opportunities: I previously noted how the equal-weighted S&P500 had been lagging behind vs the cap-weighted and was stuck in the range, and yet to make a new high. That all changed last week.
The equal-weighted S&P500 (and equal-weighted Nasdaq for that matter) has broken out of the range and onto new highs. Bullish development.
Source: @SerSigma
2. The SpaceX Factor: probably the biggest development last week was the SpaceX IPO filing — set to be the largest IPO in history (~US$2 trillion). It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX (targeting mid-June).
The news helped my equal-weighted index of space sector stocks surge to further new highs, as the space boom kicks into full swing.
Source: Chart of the Week - Space Stocks
3. Space Allocations: as a side note on space stocks, one interesting point is that space-focused ETFs (such as UFO, ARKX, NASA, ROKT, MARS) currently have a market share of about 0.06% — that compares to 0.32% for Aerospace & Defense ETFs (and a market cap weight for US Aerospace & Defense of just over 2%).
Arguably investors are underallocated to the commercial space theme.
(…or at least until SpaceX lists and gets included into index funds)
4. SPCX Index Fast-Track? with the S&P index committee currently consulting on how to treat Mega Cap (i.e. top 100 largest companies by market cap) IPOs, we could see SpaceX soon getting a substantial weight in passive and active fund benchmarks (e.g. on current info it could be as much as a 3% weight if it were included in the S&P500).
Based on Bloomberg Intelligence analysis, this would mean active+passive funds might need to buy almost half of the public float of SpaceX.
Source: @rduboff via @EricBalchunas
5. Mega IPO = Mega Volatility: the upside case for SpaceX with index fund buying in the short-term and potential Mars colonization in the long-term and space-based internet and AI data centers in the more immediate term is clearly quite compelling.
But it’s about this point we should take a look at some previous big compounders’ post-IPO path. Volatility is the rule (which may be a risk or an opportunity depending how you look at it!).
Source: Off The Charts
6. Billions or Bust: stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, we basically have a wave of mega-cap IPOs expected to come to market. Aside from SpaceX there’s also talk of AI hot shots OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks (combined set to be at least as big if not bigger than the SpaceX IPO). This all adds up to a bumper year for equity capital markets, and is likely to exceed the crazy stimulus-SPAC boom of 2021.
Source: Goldman Sachs via @BlakeMillardCFA
7. Boon or Bust? and yes, this is a late-cycle signal. In equity capital markets you have to make hay when the sun shines, raise capital when speculative appetite is ripe, funds are flowing, and valuations are high. Those are conditions you see in the later phases of the market cycle. But even then, if this chart proves to be an accurate guide, it means we are close-to, but still not-yet-at the peak.
Source: @Geo_papic
8. IPOs & Market Cycles: zooming further out, and just looking at the number of IPOs, again we can see that things have heated up on the IPO front (and p.s. ever since 2000 IPOs kind of fell out of relative-popularity with the rise of venture capital and private equity, so the 2025-26 numbers are good by post-2000’s standards).
Source: Topdown Charts Professional
