This edition looks at: EM equity technicals, strong dollar, EMFX flags, EM bond spreads, fund flows, stress indicators, EM equity valuations, and macro regimes...
I couldn't agree with you more on this. One potential positive is if you look at the relative Chinese M2 vs US M2, growth of money and credit in each. This gives some potential reason for optimism. There is a lot of wood to chop though
This bit of FUD, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/warnings-of-sovereign-defaults-in-asia-frontier-markets-flare-up , had me rechecking VWOB/EMB portfolio assets. VWOB seems pretty conservative about allocating to the "frontier" nation states. Have been dipping in small increments on the hopes the capital-gain returns will be worth waiting for if the price(s) paid must be revisited from below. Using various search strings on Bloomberg for the multitude of Chinese bond and property crises and FUDding results are enough to disturb my sense of calm.
Do like the "relevant tickers discussed" feature. Helpful it is. I couldn't find anything yet that neatly packaged up your "ex-Asia" into a single ticker. Fidelity lets customers create "baskets" ...
China is truly unique. As a Westerner in a nation state that seemed hellbent on becoming a Banana Republic, but, now seems to have changed course yet again and settled on being just a Republic gone Bananas, I can hardly wrap my mind around stories like this by Adam Minter, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-17/china-is-falling-out-of-love-with-skyscrapers
Implementing even the tiniest fraction of the proposals (or is it really part of the next topdown ;) Government "plan"?) the article reveals would take a CENTURY, at best, to transpire in the US.
So it seems all those commodities wound up creating unlivable concrete-canyon hellscapes no one can really afford the maintenance on as they age (i.e., dissolve in the air pollution ). Well doh! Chinese are human, and humans love their suburbs!