Weekly Survey

Trying something new (and old) here...

Since 2016 I’ve been conducting a weekly survey on Twitter(/X) asking folk if they’re bullish or bearish on stocks (and bonds) — and specifically whether that view is based primarily on fundamental or technical reasons.

I just realized Substack lets you run surveys, so I wanted to try running the survey on here for a change (if it works well then I will look at doing this ongoing).

If all goes to plan and it works fine then I’ll also provide updated charts and data after the final results (+excel file of historical data for those who are interested). I will open up the comment section for those who would like to add any color to their views and for general discussion. Again, we’ll see how it goes, but we could also potentially look at occasional special questions based on events and timely topics.

So here’s where you come in — please answer the following two polls (again, you can add any thoughts or quips in the comments). I’ll post an FAQ on the questions below, but in the meantime, I’m excited to see how this goes in terms of take-up and how the results turn out :-)

Equities Survey (for practical purposes assume this is S&P500)

Bonds Survey (for practical purposes assume this is US ~10-yr Treasuries)

Frequently Asked Questions on the surveys

What is the timeframe? Just answer based on what your strongest view is and the most relevant timeframe to how you look at markets.

Where is the option for neutral? There is not one, because Twitter only lets you have 4 options, so I’m afraid you will have to jump off the fence and make your best guess.

What is fundamentals/technicals? Technicals = technical analysis, i.e. price-based information, Fundamentals = everything else (macro, earnings, valuations, monetary).

Have you ever tried mapping the results to price? Yes, I post updated charts after the final results with price vs sentiment, so you can see historical predictability, and where things are currently tracking.

Can I get a copy of the historical data? Yep, I will post this soon.

Aren’t there already other sentiment surveys? Yes, but this one is slightly different in that it asks respondents to differentiate their viewpoint based on fundamentals vs technicals. It also gives the most timely surveyed sentiment update for the end of the week as the various other surveys tend to go out early/mid/later-week, particularly relevant if something happens over the weekend.

How does it compare to other surveys? The overall bulls vs bears is similar, but sometimes slightly different. The Technicals bulls vs bears indicator is quite different to the Fundamentals bulls vs bears indicator (I will post charts soon that show this).

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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/