I did track your charts on gold miners almost a year ago and that was just a beautiful signal. And platinum too. Thank you. For EM the charts are surely supported with the weaker USD with energy and mining coming through too or do those things all work together anyway?
Yes precisely, it's all interconnected. The weaker USD + stronger EMFX is definitely helping and is a key part of the case there (EMFX is still notably undervalued), and stronger commodities + global growth are helping the more commodity sensitive/growth linked economies. So overall I think you can get to a place where you have a few key trends reinforcing each other, and probably that's actually required for it to become a larger self-sustaining longer-term move... (given me some ideas for charts/trackers here!)
I also have shifted some from VTI to VXUS, as well as AVDV/VWO after reading your weekly newsletter with positive results. Maybe I will have to research UFOD now 🤔
Thanks to you, I started increasing my allocation to EEM and VXUS early and it's paid off. I think there is still room to run on EEM and right now, India and China look like they might be starting to wake up. ILF and almost all of the individual South America etfs have been on a tear.
Thanks, great to hear. Yes agreed, a lot of things going right, and macro-fundamentals heading in the right direction + no major risk flags at this point. So path of least resistance is probably higher...
Thanks! Am wondering about which EM ETFs are better than others for targeting the weak USD theme? Perhaps commodity countries whose currencies have not yet appreciated that much yet against the USD?
thank you Callum, fantastic read as usual
cheers! I appreciate the appreciation :-)
I did track your charts on gold miners almost a year ago and that was just a beautiful signal. And platinum too. Thank you. For EM the charts are surely supported with the weaker USD with energy and mining coming through too or do those things all work together anyway?
Yes precisely, it's all interconnected. The weaker USD + stronger EMFX is definitely helping and is a key part of the case there (EMFX is still notably undervalued), and stronger commodities + global growth are helping the more commodity sensitive/growth linked economies. So overall I think you can get to a place where you have a few key trends reinforcing each other, and probably that's actually required for it to become a larger self-sustaining longer-term move... (given me some ideas for charts/trackers here!)
I also have shifted some from VTI to VXUS, as well as AVDV/VWO after reading your weekly newsletter with positive results. Maybe I will have to research UFOD now 🤔
Thanks, Steve, glad to be helpful.
Yeah, it's a bit of a fringe idea that one, but sometimes the most interesting ideas are the most unthinkable/overlooked ones...
Thanks to you, I started increasing my allocation to EEM and VXUS early and it's paid off. I think there is still room to run on EEM and right now, India and China look like they might be starting to wake up. ILF and almost all of the individual South America etfs have been on a tear.
Thanks, great to hear. Yes agreed, a lot of things going right, and macro-fundamentals heading in the right direction + no major risk flags at this point. So path of least resistance is probably higher...
Sorry if you already covered this in an earlier post, I just joined recently.
Thanks! Am wondering about which EM ETFs are better than others for targeting the weak USD theme? Perhaps commodity countries whose currencies have not yet appreciated that much yet against the USD?