Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 18 January 2026
This week: sentiment snippets, VIX and credit spreads, transports, shipping stocks, emerging markets, valuations, relative value, strategy note on valuation signals...
Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
Sentiment is getting increasingly consensus bullish.
VIX & Credit Spreads are at complacent/confident levels.
Transports, shipping stocks, EM, and metals are breaking out.
Value is cheaper than usual vs history and vs growth stocks.
Growth stocks are expensive vs history and vs value stocks.
Overall, the mood remains distinctly bullish and increasingly so —and perhaps justifiably so as more evidence emerges in favor of a global growth reacceleration (and better performance from traditional cyclicals and risk-on assets). But with growth stocks already richly priced, and value still cheap, the next phase of the bull market might look a little unfamiliar to some…
n.b. In case you missed it (last week): Off-Topic ChartStorm - Emerging Markets
1. Surveyed Sentiment: summing the various surveys, sentiment is getting fairly bullish. This is not necessarily an impending bearish signal as it reflects the bullish momentum underway, and I would highlight that sentiment generally works better at picking bottoms than tops. But it does got to show that most minds are made-up… and if the right(/wrong) thing came along, those minds could change pretty quickly.
Source: Topdown Charts
2. Investment Manager Index: speaking of changing minds, Investment Managers as a group are generally feeling much more bullish in January. They cite central bank policy, equity fundamentals, fiscal policy, and the macro backdrop as supportive (yet still have concerns around valuations and the political environment).
