Great content! As always thanks for sharing. SPY and QQQ important test at 50-day moving average happening per your first chart. Interesting to note though that both small-caps IWM and ARK Innovation ARKK holding above 50-day last week.
I think you've misread No. 4. It actually shows that large speculators are long. Hence, in the original tweet, it says "Sentiment continues to be the one bright spot in an otherwise dark tape." The graph also shows that speculators don't always get it right. https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC/status/1544701510608633856
Speculative futures positioning is net-short (I just double checked the actual data before replying!) -- the reason they explain that chart as being a bright spot is from a contrarian standpoint: contrarian sentiment analysis theory states that the majority is almost always wrong (especially at extremes), and that's what the data seem to show in that chart. It's partly a reflection of crowd psychology, but also flows aspect (e.g. if there are large shorts, then there will be heavy buying flows to close those positions in the event of upside surprises)
Great content! As always thanks for sharing. SPY and QQQ important test at 50-day moving average happening per your first chart. Interesting to note though that both small-caps IWM and ARK Innovation ARKK holding above 50-day last week.
Yeah, still looks fairly tenuous though, guilty until proven innocent in my eyes! :-)
Looks like guilty it is...
I think you've misread No. 4. It actually shows that large speculators are long. Hence, in the original tweet, it says "Sentiment continues to be the one bright spot in an otherwise dark tape." The graph also shows that speculators don't always get it right. https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC/status/1544701510608633856
Speculative futures positioning is net-short (I just double checked the actual data before replying!) -- the reason they explain that chart as being a bright spot is from a contrarian standpoint: contrarian sentiment analysis theory states that the majority is almost always wrong (especially at extremes), and that's what the data seem to show in that chart. It's partly a reflection of crowd psychology, but also flows aspect (e.g. if there are large shorts, then there will be heavy buying flows to close those positions in the event of upside surprises)