Thanks, yes this is the underappreciated edge risk of AI -- that it actually is good, effective, and able to be rapidly rolled out to effect massive "efficiency/productivity" gains (i.e. mass layoffs) ...and indeed, recession, and deflationary forces........ all of which are good things for long duration bonds
Thank you very much for the article. A question regarding geopolitics. How big is the impact of abandoning us treasuries by China and other world players on tlt?
Yeah part of that is reflected in the relative performance of gold vs treasuries (substantial outperformance) -- so I would say it's already reflected in the price e.g. treasuries look cheap and gold now looks expensive. One of the biggest contrarian trades (not sure if/when it will work) would be to sell gold and buy bonds... but I don't think you'll find anyone brave enough to take that one!
As someone noted in response to Subutrade post, the chart of short interest in TLT should be considered as % of shares outstnding as they too have skyrocketed. The ratio SI/SO is catually lower.
I’ve been actively building up my position in TLT specifically, and its up around 25% of my portfolio. Most of the rest is precious metals & Uranium mining stocks, all with covered calls sold, and I’ll be able to move a lot more over in January once those calls expire. I’m looking for a quick move to the high 90’s where I’ll either reduce, sell covered calls, or both.
If one believes in AI, should one also buy a long bond to maturity? AI = automation = loss of jobs = recession/deflation = return of ZIRP?
Thanks, yes this is the underappreciated edge risk of AI -- that it actually is good, effective, and able to be rapidly rolled out to effect massive "efficiency/productivity" gains (i.e. mass layoffs) ...and indeed, recession, and deflationary forces........ all of which are good things for long duration bonds
Very informative post. Thanks
Cheers!
Thank you very much for the article. A question regarding geopolitics. How big is the impact of abandoning us treasuries by China and other world players on tlt?
Yeah part of that is reflected in the relative performance of gold vs treasuries (substantial outperformance) -- so I would say it's already reflected in the price e.g. treasuries look cheap and gold now looks expensive. One of the biggest contrarian trades (not sure if/when it will work) would be to sell gold and buy bonds... but I don't think you'll find anyone brave enough to take that one!
As someone noted in response to Subutrade post, the chart of short interest in TLT should be considered as % of shares outstnding as they too have skyrocketed. The ratio SI/SO is catually lower.
I’ve been actively building up my position in TLT specifically, and its up around 25% of my portfolio. Most of the rest is precious metals & Uranium mining stocks, all with covered calls sold, and I’ll be able to move a lot more over in January once those calls expire. I’m looking for a quick move to the high 90’s where I’ll either reduce, sell covered calls, or both.
Anyway, I appreciate the update.
Thanks John