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Chart Of The Day - Türkiye Take-off
Not every day you see a chart like this...
Hyper: Turkish equities are up +640% off the March 2020 lows… in nominal local currency terms. Seems impressive, and in many ways it is, but there are some nuances.
The chart shows the MSCI Turkey index in local currency terms. That should be the first clue — the TRY (Turkish lira) has dropped -77% vs the US dollar over the same period. So in USD terms over the same period the price return is a much lower, but still respectable +80%.
Another aspect is inflation, across that same period, Turkey’s CPI has gone up about +275% — as such inflation adjusted or real price local currency denominated returns therefore drop to ~95%.
So in some respects it’s a bit of a lesson in terms of inflation and/or FX adjusting returns to get a sense for the true/effective picture for both domestic and global investors respectively. But it’s also a lesson in terms of what hyperinflating nominal growth can do to stock prices in nominal terms.
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