It will be interesting to see if the Iran bombing and higher oil prices will affect inflation very much. My analysis of farmer costs from higher diesel and fertilzier says that crops are going to be more expensive to grow this year
There’s something appealing about how neatly this frames the landscape. Growth firming, inflation behaving, commodities waking up right on cue. It reads like a system finding its rhythm again. But markets tend to get uneasy when everything starts to sound that orderly.
What stands out is how widely accepted this “reacceleration” idea has become. When a narrative settles in that cleanly, it often means positioning has already leaned in that direction. The market doesn’t reward consensus for long. It tests it.
You can feel that tension underneath the surface. Equities are still priced for strength, commodities are beginning to stir, and bonds are sitting there unwanted. Those pieces don’t naturally sit together without friction. Eventually something has to adjust.
Lately, price has been giving quieter signals. Supports that used to produce sharp reactions are starting to feel softer. Bounces come, but they lack urgency. That kind of behavior matters more than any macro label. It tells you where conviction is fading.
The framework here is thoughtful, but the market rarely moves in a straight line from thesis to outcome. It moves through pressure, through positioning, through moments where things stop behaving the way they should. That shift is usually where the real opportunity begins.
Thanks, that's interesting, I wasn't aware that it was widely accepted (maybe many people are copying me!!, lol). But yes I was thinking about this the other day, the more clear things seem and sure you feel, the more likely it is you're wrong -- as a macro/market analyst you spend most of your time not quite sure, and it's when things are more of a hunch or outright uncertain that you end up scoring the big hits.
Thanks for the insightful and introspective comment :-)
It will be interesting to see if the Iran bombing and higher oil prices will affect inflation very much. My analysis of farmer costs from higher diesel and fertilzier says that crops are going to be more expensive to grow this year
Thanks Greg, yes I've noticed the equal-weighted agri commodities index has already begun ticking higher. Definitely something to keep an eye on...
What an excellent update -- I love the format, very transparent to see how your thinking (and the world) has evolved in 4 months.
Thanks, yes transparency is always the right choice + I find it a useful exercise for myself too. I will update it again in July + Oct. :-)
There’s something appealing about how neatly this frames the landscape. Growth firming, inflation behaving, commodities waking up right on cue. It reads like a system finding its rhythm again. But markets tend to get uneasy when everything starts to sound that orderly.
What stands out is how widely accepted this “reacceleration” idea has become. When a narrative settles in that cleanly, it often means positioning has already leaned in that direction. The market doesn’t reward consensus for long. It tests it.
You can feel that tension underneath the surface. Equities are still priced for strength, commodities are beginning to stir, and bonds are sitting there unwanted. Those pieces don’t naturally sit together without friction. Eventually something has to adjust.
Lately, price has been giving quieter signals. Supports that used to produce sharp reactions are starting to feel softer. Bounces come, but they lack urgency. That kind of behavior matters more than any macro label. It tells you where conviction is fading.
The framework here is thoughtful, but the market rarely moves in a straight line from thesis to outcome. It moves through pressure, through positioning, through moments where things stop behaving the way they should. That shift is usually where the real opportunity begins.
Thanks, that's interesting, I wasn't aware that it was widely accepted (maybe many people are copying me!!, lol). But yes I was thinking about this the other day, the more clear things seem and sure you feel, the more likely it is you're wrong -- as a macro/market analyst you spend most of your time not quite sure, and it's when things are more of a hunch or outright uncertain that you end up scoring the big hits.
Thanks for the insightful and introspective comment :-)
Cheers