Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - Risk in Focus

This week: key support levels, short-term signals, buying the dip, market cycle perspectives, corporate capex trends and cycles, thinking about risk (frameworks and current outlook)

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

• This week we found out where the key support levels are.

• Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.

• Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.

• Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).

• It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.

Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency.

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ICYMI: Off-Topic ChartStorm — Gold (updated outlook for gold, silver, miners)

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1. Support Group: From a quick scan across charts and markets, it looks like we’ve found support —and at the very least, this also establishes a line in the sand or trigger point for the next steps if things aren’t able to hold.