Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - Bubble Trouble?

This week: speculative tech, hedge fund crowding, semi sector surge, AI credit boom (and credit risk pricing), earnings euphoria, consumer boom and gloom, and the real story on personal finances...

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

• Bitcoin is rolling over: a warning sign for teetering tech stocks.

• Investors of all types are increasingly all-in on the AI trade.

• The AI race is heating up as an AI credit boom kicks-off.

• Investor sentiment is euphoric across numerous metrics.

• Consumer confidence is slumping as the divide widens.

Overall, the AI bubble continues to simmer away as investors increasingly pile into the only game in town. It has all the hallmarks of a late-cycle market, with sentiment riding high and big bets being placed. The mid-October volatility spike goes to show that even if and as things move higher, it’s an environment where the slightest spook can send shudders through an otherwise complacent crowd.

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1. Risk Rattles: I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign.