Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 9 August 2026
This week: global equities, technical check, tech stocks, credit and macro, volatility signals, wealth and boomers, the most hated investment...
Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
Global equities are in a bull market (path of least resistance = higher).
US equities are in a broad-based upswing.
Investors are scrambling into tech stocks at a record pace.
Calm macro is keeping the lid on credit spreads.
(but) VIX seasonality says stay alert to Q3 surprises.
Overall, the global equity bull market rages on, and with supportive-benign macro the path of least resistance is likely higher. That said, VIX seasonality and known tail risks suggest still having a plan and process on the risk management front…
1. Global Equity Bull Market: global equities remain in a fully-fledged bull market with 40% of countries chalking-up new 52-week highs (and zero new lows). While things can turn faster than you expect and shocks can appear out of nowhere, this is a picture of strength and the path of least resistance is higher.
Source: Topdown Charts Professional
2. Onwards & Upwards: back in the USA it’s the same sort of thing. The equal-weighted index has been steadily pushing higher and 200-day moving average breadth trending up —and now, after a period of consolidation and ranging, the cap-weighted index is also out to new highs.
Source: MarketCharts.com (link to editable chart)
3. MAGS Up: both Mag-7 and ex-Mag-7 have quickly snapped back from the lows. Another victory for dip-buyers.
Source: MarketCharts.com
4. Tech Cheap? with tech stocks stuck in the range over the past few months, ever-enthusiastic analyst earnings expectations have continued higher and higher… and hence tech is cheap on a Forward P/E basis.
Source: @MacroCharts
5. The Techening: despite or because of this, investors have piled into tech stocks at an accelerating rate, and implied allocations to tech ETFs have surpassed 50%.
Source: Topdown Charts
6. SLOOS Signals: the latest Fed survey of bank loan officers show banks are relaxing their lending standards slightly for large and medium sized firms. This is also basically consistent with the equity bull market. The time to get worried is when bank loan officers start to tighten up standards...
