Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 30 April 2023
This week: monthly charts, technicals, micro caps, seasonality, bear length, sentiment signals, global vs US, credit crunch, market concentration, IPO market update...
Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
April marks the 4th month in a row that the S&P500 closed above its 10-month moving average. Yet, the index remains below key overhead resistance levels.
We are heading into a seasonally sloppy patch for stock markets globally.
One interesting composite sentiment indicator has put in what has historically been a very reliable bullish medium-term signal.
Multiple data points confirm the ongoing credit crunch across the real economy in the wake of the banking crisis (banking collapse risk has been curtailed, but credit tightening risks have compounded).
April data show the US IPO market remains stagnant, reflecting the ongoing draining of liquidity and weak investor confidence.
Overall, the market remains in a state of short-term stalemate. Hope springs among bulls on the back of sentiment and technicals, while bears point to monetary tightening and economic downdrafts. Meanwhile a strange and disjointed cycle continues to run its course. We’re left in search of new data, but most of all eyeing key support and resistance levels for cues on the next step…
1. Happy New Month! April marks the 4th month in a row that the S&P500 closed above its 10-month moving average — a rough and fallible proxy for determining whether the market is in an uptrend vs downtrend. Clearly this chart has a bullish slant to it and is worth noting. But at the same time, the problem with moving averages is that they tell you if there is an uptrend or a downtrend, but give little clue or heads up if there is NO trend…