Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 2 November 2025

This week: monthly charts, seasonality, technical check, valuations, profit margin prophets, foreign owners, long-term asset returns, tech vs non-tech, global vs US...

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

• The S&P500 did +2.27% in Oct (6th monthly gain in a row).

• Following 6-months in a row of gains, another gain is more likely than not.

• Seasonality is also bullish in November (historically best month of the year).

• Surging profit margins (for tech) help explain extreme highs in valuations.

• Profit margins tend to peak before stocks (n.b. no peak observed as yet*).

Overall, as outlined below, there sure seems to be a statistical slant towards another month of gains in November. Yet never to be satisfied with a 1-sided synopsis: bad breadth, statistical tails, and increasingly expensive valuations suggests you ought not to get too complacent either.

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1. Happy New Month!  The S&P500 advanced a further +2.27% on the month in October, placing it up +16.3% YTD and marking its 6th monthly gain in a row.