The Weekly ChartStorm

The Weekly ChartStorm

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The Weekly ChartStorm
The Weekly ChartStorm
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 17 Mar 2024
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Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 17 Mar 2024

This week: enter the doji, euphoria, flows, speculative frenzy, stockmarket vs economic sentiment, cycles, the rise of tech, foreign holdings of US stocks, US tech supremacy...

Callum Thomas's avatar
Callum Thomas
Mar 16, 2024
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The Weekly ChartStorm
The Weekly ChartStorm
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 17 Mar 2024
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Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

  • The weekly “doji” denotes indecision following a strong run.

  • Euphoric sentiment indicators suggest a speculative frenzy taking hold.

  • Smart money remains skeptical (albeit reluctant FOMO bulls).

  • Foreigners are disproportionately buying US Stocks.

  • US tech stocks trade at a 2-3x premium vs global tech stocks.

Overall, I feel like not that much has changed since I unplugged just over a week ago for a family vacation — the market politely went sideways during that time, thanks market :-) There’s still things to be concerned about, and still bullish momentum. But what does stand out: the doji formation, the sideways movement, toppiness in tech/bitcoin …coming at a time where sentiment is all on one side of the boat, and seasonality is turning slippery. Maybe some market volatility is set to pile-on to my email backlogs!


1. Enter the Doji:  First up is the appearance of an interesting pair of weekly candles known as “doji” (where the open/close are almost identical). These represent an element of indecision, and can indicate exhaustion and possible reversal risk following an extended move (like the one we have just seen).

Source: @MikeZaccardi via @TheChartReport


2. Euphoria Rising:  But while the weekly candles show some indecision, investor sentiment is decidedly bullish — investor euphoria at the upper end of the range.

Source:  The Euphoriameter


3. Flows Show:  Similarly, US equity fund flows show clear FOMO.

Source:  Daily Shot


4. Speculative Frenzy:  Trading activity in leveraged long vs short US equity ETFs has reached frenzied levels — at this point one of two paths lie ahead: either a repeat of the pandemic stimulus/liquidity-fueled bubble of 2021, or the market takes a short-term breather.

Source: Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Professional


5. Stockmarket vs Economy:  Interestingly, when it comes to investor sentiment (surveys of investors); optimism and bullishness is the overwhelming feeling… when it comes to economic sentiment (surveys about economic activity, expectations); pessimism and recession remain the mood. One of these is going to have to do some moving the close that gap.

Source: Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Professional


6. Investment Managers of 2 Minds:  Similarly, investment managers appear to be reluctantly taking risk, while not expecting much upside… a situation of lingering concerns on valuations and (geo)politics, but elements of FOMO as “stocks only go up” (set against the very real and ever-present peer/benchmark risk).

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