Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 16 November 2025

This week: bitcoin harbingers, private market problems, valuations and market cycle perspectives, upside opportunities, biotech and healthcare, practical issues...

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

• Bitcoin is off about -25%, a bearish omen for tech stocks.

• Listed private equity is down -13%, another bearish omen.

• Valuations and positioning are at historical extremes.

• (but there’s good relative & absolute value in foreign/value stocks)

• Biotech is breaking out, healthcare relative performance is turning up.

Overall, there’s perhaps too many sick-looking canaries in the coalmine for comfort at the moment; especially when you consider the valuation backdrop. But one issue with extreme valuations is how to practically factor that aspect in. The new “Portfolio Strategy Notes” section at the end offers some pragmatic perspectives on this…

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"Big Ideas 2026"

In case you missed my 2026 Outlook Webinar last week, here’s the replay (+slide pack). There were many good questions in the Q&A discussion segment, but if you had any further questions be sure to post in the comments.

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1. Bitcoin Bell-ringing: Bitcoin is now down about -25% from top-to-bottom, as a gauge of system liquidity and speculative risk appetite this is not a good sign. Tech has also topped, and is also down (but only about -4% so far). Tech stock fans are going to want to see Bitcoin stabilize and recover, and soon, or else the tech valuation/confidence structure could start to follow and potentially unravel quickly.