Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 14 December 2025

This week: market pulse, Fed funds sweet spot, monetary tailwinds vs investor confidence, Santa, AI mentions, price vs earnings, PE returns, staying out of trouble...

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm!

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

• Tech is stumbling again (+Bitcoin languishing around the lows).

• Fed rate cuts are bringing policy settings into the sweet spot for stocks.

• Rate cuts near the ATH are bullish, and more cuts are likely.

• More companies are mentioning AI in earnings calls (+being rewarded for it).

• Sometimes the earnings story goes right the while price path goes wrong.

Overall, there’s the Friday sell-off looking like an aftershock from the November correction and still a few weak spots lurking off the radar, but there’s also been some bullish developments. An extension of Fed rate cuts may be just the thing to extend an already extended run in stocks…

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Topdown Charts 2025 End of Year Special Report

I just sent out my (10th(!)) annual End of year Special Report — the report goes over my best, worst, and favorite charts of the past year + honorable mentions, and charts to watch in 2026. As a holiday treat, please enjoy this report as a free download.

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1. Rebound Resistance:  The rebound in tech stocks has stalled around what appears to be a key overhead resistance zone. Bitcoin also remains significantly lower from the highs and has not yet managed to recover. The key point is that it looks like there has been a change in mood and direction in markets (as opposed to the run up from April-Oct). These kinds of shifts can be fleeting consolidations and momentary corrections of excess greed, but can also be the harbinger of a larger bearish shift. So it warrants monitoring at the least.