<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Weekly ChartStorm]]></title><description><![CDATA[Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png</url><title>The Weekly ChartStorm</title><link>https://www.chartstorm.info</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 06:53:50 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.chartstorm.info/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[chartstorm@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[chartstorm@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[chartstorm@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[chartstorm@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 3 May 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: monthly charts, big April, micro-caps, sentiment snippets, capex crusades, software jobs, total SPX employees, death of value, valuation snapshot...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-3-may</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-3-may</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2026 03:22:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 gained +10.4% in April (+5.3% YTD).</p></li><li><p>A good (&gt;5%) April bodes well for the rest of the year.</p></li><li><p>Micro Cap stocks are making a big move (good sign for all stocks).</p></li><li><p>There has been a big pivot in preference from cash-flow to capex.</p></li><li><p>Value investing might(?) be dead, but don&#8217;t ignore valuations altogether.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, the &#8220;healthy correction&#8221; thesis is playing out near to textbook, and unless some new bad news or shocks show up, that means the path of least resistance is probably onwards and upwards&#8230;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Happy New Month!&nbsp;</strong>the S&amp;P500 climbed a scorching +10.4% in April, placing it up +5.3% YTD, and back above its 10-month moving average (which is a loose proxy for up vs down trend).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png" width="1395" height="917" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:917,&quot;width&quot;:1395,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77147,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/196182736?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!07q2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c36610a-30e3-4a15-b67e-1d26ba11c027_1395x917.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;2e2be874-5c56-4aa7-918f-1ad01d88ad9d&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Big April:&nbsp;</strong>one good thing about the big bounce in April is that historically returns above 5% in April bode well for the rest of the year (albeit there is a bit of variation e.g. contrast 1978, 83, and 2001 which were flat-to-negative vs 1997, 2003/09/20 which did more than 20% during the rest of the year).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png" width="975" height="690" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:690,&quot;width&quot;:975,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77834,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/196182736?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7KZ7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfb40d4a-5cbd-4aca-b233-2351a6580a2c_975x690.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2049866359559872599">@RyanDetrick</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Big Move for Micro-Caps:&nbsp;</strong>one clue for a bright rest-of-2026 is the way several key risk-sentiment barometer markets like micro-caps (along with emerging markets, industrial metals, tech, and Bitcoin) have put in some very promising technicals (e.g. as shown below: micro caps successfully retesting their breakout from a large rounding base).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png" width="1456" height="766" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:766,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:232104,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/196182736?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kZ4v!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93278e85-1584-44ed-b443-3ce4ba1b8939_2048x1077.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://trendlabs.com/tupac-spanish-wine-and-monthly-candlesticks/">TrendLabs</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Healthy Correction:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile the sentiment and positioning data all continue to point to <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april">the Q1 cleanout</a> as being basically a &#8220;healthy correction&#8221; &#8212; a turning back of the clock on the cycle without any permanent damage being done to overall market psychology (and without the type of fundamental damage that would jeopardize the uptrend in stocks).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png" width="1195" height="817" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:817,&quot;width&quot;:1195,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:92617,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/196182736?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AyQA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F562a70b3-5ec7-49ec-8918-565007214138_1195x817.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;abdd0b67-60d2-4af3-9ad8-336fb6529961&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Unhealthy Obsession:&nbsp;</strong>having said that, there is a large amount of trust and weight being placed on the AI theme to drive earnings and stock prices higher (with the extreme optimism in long-term earnings growth displayed by Wall Street analysts being a key quantitative example).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png" width="1045" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1045,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:68062,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/196182736?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lx7L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27e5043e-99fe-4496-bef4-c8baa3f3526e_1045x792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>6. New Paradigm:&nbsp;</strong>another angle on that is tech and tech related companies&#8217; capex now accounting for <em><strong>half</strong></em> of all S&amp;P500 aggregate corporate capex.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-3-may">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chart of the Week - Semiconductor Surge]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chart in-focus from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-semiconductor-surge</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-semiconductor-surge</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:38:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">The Weekly ChartStorm</a> + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts.</em></p><div><hr></div><p>This week&#8217;s chart shows the market cap weighting of US semiconductor stocks (making record highs).</p><p>It&#8217;s a remarkable chart because at ~14% it&#8217;s basically double the level it peaked at during the height of the dot-com bubble.</p><p>It also comes at an interesting juncture as the SOX (Semiconductors Index) just chalked-up a record 17-days in a row of gains.</p><p>This is a dangerous market.</p><p>It&#8217;s dangerous for bulls because these are the types of conditions where you often encounter sharp corrections and crashes (even if it is the way of the future).</p><p>But it&#8217;s also dangerous for bears because this is basically the bubble-phase of the bull market &#8212; attempts at shorting could end up generating large losses in small time as a combination of greed, speculation, and fundamentals could drive semis even higher.</p><p>On that last point, students of market history know that booms, bulls, and bubbles start for a reason and end when things get unreasonable.</p><p>While bulls and bears often get taken by surprise in these types of markets, all my years in studying charts and observing market cycles tells me that there are always clues on the next steps for those willing to see.  </p><p>And I&#8217;ll be bringing you more of these clues and views in the next <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info">Weekly ChartStorm</a>, so stay tuned for more insights&#8230;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" width="1305" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1305,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Bottom line:</strong>  semiconductors are in the bubble phase of the bull market (which is dangerous for both bulls and bears alike!).</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Sign up &amp; Save&#8230;</strong></h3><p>Sign up now and enjoy a special introductory rate of <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c">$20 for your 1st-year</a></strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c"> of the Weekly ChartStorm</a> <em>[normally US$195/year]</em></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe Now: First Year = US$20&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c"><span>Subscribe Now: First Year = US$20</span></a></p><p>This is a great chance for you to give the service a try at <strong>minimal cost</strong> and virtually <strong>risk-free</strong> (cancel at any time).</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c">Sign up now</a></strong> to access the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april">latest full report</a> + Q&amp;A discussions so you can gain clarity on the market outlook.</p><div><hr></div><h3><em>Thanks for reading!</em></h3><p>For more info on the Weekly ChartStorm service see:</p><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/report-samples">Report Samples</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/reviews">Subscriber Reviews</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-benefits-5-downsides">Benefits of Subscribing</a></strong></p></li></ul><p>Upgrade to paid at the special introductory rate to access the latest charts &amp; analysis +join us in <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april">this week&#8217;s Q&amp;A discussions</a>.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Activate Your Account: 1st-year = $20&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/6920cc8c"><span>Activate Your Account: 1st-year = $20</span></a></p><p>Lastly, be sure to <strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/contact">reach out</a></strong> at any time if I can help with anything. I promise to leave no questions unanswered and no problems unsolved.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><p><em><strong>Already a paid subscriber?</strong></em></p><p>Log-in and read the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april">latest report here</a>:</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;b04cee63-a3d7-4225-947a-d18be79d5c7a&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Welcome to the latest Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm!&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:&quot;Read full story&quot;,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm - 26 April 2026&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:30338892,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Head of Research and Founder @topdowncharts  \nLikes: charts, data, macro, multi-asset investing, economics, geopolitics, space, science, hiking, fishing,  golf, mountain biking. &quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f60daa6-cc60-440c-9f55-7106c0be0681_400x400.png&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:1000}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-26T04:44:28.253Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:195427849,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:50,&quot;comment_count&quot;:2,&quot;publication_id&quot;:307912,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 April 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, seasonality snippets, fund flows, semiconductors, market froth at the top, cyclicals, global growth, emerging market equities...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 04:44:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>There&#8217;s a minor bearish breadth divergence on the S&amp;P500.</p></li><li><p>Seasonality is also moving into a weaker period.</p></li><li><p>(albeit seasonality tends to be better when stocks are up YTD)</p></li><li><p>Semis are surging, chalking up multiple records and extremes.</p></li><li><p>Cyclicals vs defensives are confirming the bullish macro picture.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, there&#8217;s a couple of short-term technical risk flags to note (especially with geopolitics simmering and central banks in the wings) and plenty of pockets of froth still bubbling away in markets.  But there&#8217;s also some bright spots (e.g. emerging markets, cyclicals vs defensives, <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro-themes-24-april-2026">buoyant global economy</a>).</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Bearish Divergence?&nbsp;</strong>not to spoil the rebound party, but it&#8217;d be remiss of me not to flag this obscure technical pattern.  While the index managed to chalk up new highs, breadth has rolled over from a lower high.  This is a classic bearish divergence.  </p><p>Now, bearish divergences don&#8217;t always work &#8212;but they do highlight that there are some quibbles and irritation under the surface. The other thing is excuses/events have a habit of popping up when the market is &#8220;ready&#8221; &#8230;which is interesting because we have ongoing geopolitical issues, and a whole line-up of big central banks meeting next week, including the Fed (will anyone hike rates to stave off emerging inflation risk?).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png" width="1430" height="1355" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1355,&quot;width&quot;:1430,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:550447,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iqQg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c67e0a8-875d-4863-aa85-d677f624e613_1430x1355.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/a1c1e553?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Mid-Terminal Seasonality:&nbsp;</strong>then there&#8217;s also the tendency for the coming months to be a bit choppy and weak during mid-term election years.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg" width="1070" height="738" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:738,&quot;width&quot;:1070,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:62019,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o04F!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58fc7124-cec1-412e-9dea-a13e8afac3fd_1070x738.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/ThierryBorgeat/status/2046566869411250638">@ThierryBorgeat</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. YTD-Conditional Seasonality:&nbsp;</strong>on the other hand, given we&#8217;re up +4.7% YTD, it&#8217;s worth highlighting that returns tend to be positive through that period when the market is up Year-To-Date.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg" width="1200" height="478" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:478,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61028,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V2Lk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F018917c6-a05f-4cbf-8221-60f3dfaa5f5a_1200x478.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2047674823950651447">@RyanDetrick</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Fun Flows:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile surging equity ETF flows show sentiment is alive and well, and there is apparently ample willingness and ability by investors to keep the trend going.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png" width="1456" height="1101" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1101,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:376957,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!soMC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b034cc1-c6a8-41c8-a630-b8ab8c2c9503_1507x1140.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://www.strategasasset.com/commentaries/etf-video-three-need-to-see-charts/MjU1">Strategas Asset Management</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Semi-Surge:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile semis are just doing what semis do best in the AI age.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg" width="1199" height="771" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:771,&quot;width&quot;:1199,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:98107,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HLsh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54167c90-23b2-4e05-8fce-4f4cd4034060_1199x771.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/TheMarketStats/status/2047351990603165887">@TheMarketStats</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>6. Semiconductors Market Cap Mooning:&nbsp;</strong>aside from the record number of consecutive days up, semiconductors market cap weighting also made a new all-time high last week at just under 14% (about double where it got to at the peak of dot-com).  </p><p>Some might say that&#8217;s too far too fast, others might say it&#8217;s got room to run as semiconductors are the new oil.  Time will tell, but what is true is both charts are extreme.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png" width="1305" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1305,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:63753,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/195427849?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aqMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F185ebbcb-8587-4896-9853-9b09c620d772_1305x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;8675b7d0-45c9-48ea-a8fa-b3439c5c583a&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>7. Ludicrous List:&nbsp;</strong>slightly related note, the number of big stocks with hefty price-to-sales ratios and 100%+ YoY gains is surging. Definitely some froth out there&#8230;</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-26-april">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chart of the Week - Bitcoin & Software]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chart in-focus from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-bitcoin-and-software</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-bitcoin-and-software</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 07:15:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">The Weekly ChartStorm</a> + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts.</em></p><div><hr></div><p>This chart tracks what have been <strong>two of the biggest weak spots</strong> in markets. </p><p>(and is interesting for <strong>2</strong> key reasons)</p><p><strong>First:</strong> both Bitcoin and Software stocks have stopped going down (and actually are starting to look very promising from a technical standpoint) </p><p>&#8212; i.e. the weak spots are no longer getting weaker.</p><p>That&#8217;s important because in markets weakness has a habit of spreading.</p><p>But also, further <strong>upside</strong> in these two (which is looking likely) will help rebuild sentiment and reinforce the bullish outlook for stocks in general.</p><p>Which brings me to the second point&#8230;</p><p><strong>Second:</strong> both boast a bullish tactical outlook (as I just outlined in my <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro-themes-17-april-2026">latest Weekly Macro Themes </a><strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro-themes-17-april-2026">report</a></strong>)</p><p>Basically, we&#8217;ve seen a <strong>major reset in price</strong> (software down more than -35%, bitcoin off almost -50%) and a big washout in sentiment/positioning. </p><p>And yet, the longer-term uptrend remains intact for both assets. </p><p>We&#8217;ve also seen both Bitcoin &amp; Software stocks rebound off of clearly defined support levels (and p.s. those support levels also serve as useful triggers for risk management if the bull case doesn&#8217;t work out).</p><p>So it&#8217;s a very interesting chart from a market analysis standpoint, but also for the potential upside opportunities unfolding right now.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png" width="1140" height="777" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:777,&quot;width&quot;:1140,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:74285,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/194877019?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PJGL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F751550c0-c108-4983-8142-7f3a90de1655_1140x777.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Bottom line:</strong>  the weak spots are no longer getting weaker (and if anything, are actually starting to look bullish).</p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">The Weekly ChartStorm is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h3><em>Thanks for reading!</em></h3><p>For more info on the Weekly ChartStorm service see:</p><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/report-samples">Report Samples</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/reviews">Subscriber Reviews</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-benefits-5-downsides">Benefits of Subscribing</a></strong></p></li></ul><p>p.s. if you haven&#8217;t already yet, be sure to Upgrade to Paid to access the latest charts &amp; analysis +join us in this week&#8217;s Q&amp;A discussions.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Lastly, be sure to <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/contact">reach out</a> at any time if I can help with anything. I promise to leave no questions unanswered and no problems unsolved.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><p><em><strong>Already a paid subscriber?</strong></em></p><p>Log-in and read the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april">latest report here</a>:</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;b5c2215e-5935-4d33-8c6f-ecf3fdf4b966&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Welcome to the latest Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm!&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:&quot;Read full story&quot;,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm - 19 April 2026&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:30338892,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Head of Research and Founder @topdowncharts  \nLikes: charts, data, macro, multi-asset investing, economics, geopolitics, space, science, hiking, fishing,  golf, mountain biking. &quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f60daa6-cc60-440c-9f55-7106c0be0681_400x400.png&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:1000}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-19T02:20:27.507Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:194592733,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:48,&quot;comment_count&quot;:2,&quot;publication_id&quot;:307912,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 April 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, the Q1 clean-out (hedge funds, retail, tech investors, speculators, global equity technicals), cash allocations, Bitcoin & Software...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2026 02:20:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 has bounced back &amp; onto new all-time highs.</p></li><li><p>Q1 saw a major cleanout in positioning across participants.</p></li><li><p>Two major weak spots (Bitcoin &amp; Software) are looking better.</p></li><li><p>Global equity technicals look bullish following &#8220;healthy correction&#8221;.</p></li><li><p>Retail allocations to cash remain around the bottom end of the range.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, following what now looks to be a &#8220;healthy correction&#8221; + a big Q1 clean out in positioning + positive technical developments &#8212; it looks like the path of least resistance is higher from here.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Mission Accomplished:&nbsp;</strong>that looks like a decisive victory.</p><p>One thing I think that stands out through this whole episode is how despite consensus bullish sentiment, crowded positioning, and stretched valuations around the turn of the year &#8212;we barely scratched -10% down on the S&amp;P 500. I think that ultimately reflects a strong underlying trend and positive macro-fundamentals (for now at least).</p><p>And now that we&#8217;ve got the rebound and clean breakout from oversold washed out conditions, it looks like this reset has been of the &#8220;healthy correction&#8221; variety (so we probably drift higher from here).</p><p>The next few charts document the reset&#8230;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png" width="1420" height="1350" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1350,&quot;width&quot;:1420,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:555816,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/194592733?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lbNe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a31da44-9858-4655-bedd-39d1daf36aed_1420x1350.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/06b69e21?via=1371">MarketCharts.com Charting Tools</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. The Q1 Clean Out &#8212; Hedge Funds (1):&nbsp;</strong>hedge funds trimmed longs and added to shorts, sending the longs vs shorts ratio down to surpass the 2025 tariff tantrum lows.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-april">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, BMRs, semiconductors, tech stock ups and downs, profit margins, valuations, and unsafe investing...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-12-april</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-12-april</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2026 04:11:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d4eda02-b994-466c-8ee4-924747e914f0_1297x907.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone.</p></li><li><p>Semiconductors meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs.</p></li><li><p>Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025.</p></li><li><p>The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs.</p></li><li><p>Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions).</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, it&#8217;s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions.  The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring).  </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Technical Check:&nbsp;</strong>bouncing from oversold conditions was the easy part, the next bit is to crack back above major overhead resistance initially at 6800 (and then 7000 to get back to new highs).  This is the part where you usually have a bit of chop and consolidation, and at worst take another dip down&#8230;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png" width="1456" height="1375" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1375,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:782920,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193645858?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ldc2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21220a21-1772-4653-b41e-d9298ac86e10_1832x1730.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/3410ddb3?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. BMR:&nbsp;</strong>on that note, the real worst case is that you get a nice trading rally, but then it rolls over to go onto new lows and into bear market.  </p><p>(beware the bear market rally)</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png" width="477" height="445" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:445,&quot;width&quot;:477,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:56964,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193645858?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!siPz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc387307-7dc7-42ac-87be-811ca1d30eb2_477x445.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/market_sleuth/status/2038987641283117427">@market_sleuth</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Semi New Highs:&nbsp;</strong>but before we go jumping to conclusions and guessing next steps, it is important to observe what we can &#8212;and one thing we can observe is the main driver of the bull market (semis) just keeping calm and carrying on to new highs.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg" width="1200" height="630" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:630,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:57895,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193645858?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zHDN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff71efb87-79aa-45a3-81e8-060fdc77f2d5_1200x630.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/JC_ParetsX/status/2042280470491132051">@JC_ParetsX</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Semiconductors Market Cap Weight:&nbsp;</strong>technical analysts might muse that the recent moves in semiconductors&#8217; market cap weighting looks like a bull flag(!)</p><p>Definitely different this time, but will it rhyme?</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png" width="1297" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1297,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:65369,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193645858?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t7LL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40184b77-71cf-4548-80d8-5b7de15f1c0c_1297x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;ecc04177-f47e-4e3f-b5f8-9599ddd29ddc&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Tech Insider Buyers:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile tech sector insiders are buying up stocks like they&#8217;re running out of time.  Is this a case of drinking too much of the Kool-Aid (and just buying at any and all times)? &#8230;or are they seeing things the rest of the market is not?</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-12-april">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chart of the Week - Global Equity Technicals]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chart in-focus from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-global-equity-technicals</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-global-equity-technicals</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:52:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into The Weekly ChartStorm + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts.</em></p><div><hr></div><p>This week&#8217;s chart is one for the bulls. </p><p>It shows the MSCI ACWI (All Countries World Index) aka Global Equities in the black line, and 50-day moving average breadth in the red (i.e. what percentage of countries are trading above their 50-day moving average).</p><p>Breadth indicators like this tell you a couple of things.</p><p>First, they give you an early heads up on global developments as the impact spreads across countries.</p><p>Second, for a shorter moving average timeframe like 50-days, it operates as an oscillator. In other words, it gives you overbought/oversold signals.</p><p>In traditional market analysis a true overbought signal is when an oscillator like this goes to an extreme high &#8212;and then rolls over.  </p><p>That second part is key. </p><p>The reason is you can get an <em><strong>overbought</strong></em> market that stays overbought and gets even more overbought, so the turning point is what gives you confirmation that a change is underway. </p><p>Interestingly, we actually got exactly these conditions just prior to the March selloff (funny how events/news/catalysts tend to show up when a market is technically &#8220;ready&#8221;).</p><p>And then on the <em><strong>oversold</strong></em> side of things, we also have a textbook example unfolding right before our eyes.</p><p>A true oversold signal comes when an oscillator goes to an extreme low &#8212;and then turns up.  That&#8217;s exactly what is happening in global equities right now.  </p><p>To be clear, this is a very bullish short-term chart.</p><p>Now of course it is anyone&#8217;s guess as to what comes next, and geopolitics for example could cut either way (e.g. could get better [ceasefire] or worse [regional escalation] &#8212;albeit some might argue it can&#8217;t get much incrementally worse).</p><p>And yet, <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-charts-to-watch-in-2026-q2-update">as I noted the other day</a>, there are some bright spots in the global economy, and sometimes you just have to shut up and listen to what price is telling you &#8230;(especially when everything and everyone else is telling you all sorts of conflicting messages). </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png" width="1290" height="827" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:827,&quot;width&quot;:1290,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fqTk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7752599-9fdc-4c02-95d2-0c8b17cbad78_1290x827.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Bottom line:</strong>  global equity technicals are short-term bullish.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>REMINDER:</strong> activate a <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?coupon=3cc17a9d">3-month free trial</a></strong> to the Weekly ChartStorm now so you can access the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april">latest report</a>, join the Q&amp;A discussions, and get a flow of insights and ideas like those discussed above.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?coupon=3cc17a9d&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Weekly ChartStorm: 3-month Free Trial&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?coupon=3cc17a9d"><span>Weekly ChartStorm: 3-month Free Trial</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h3><em>Thanks for reading!</em></h3><p>For more info on the Weekly ChartStorm service see:</p><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/report-samples">Report Samples</a> </strong>(what you get as a subscriber)</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/reviews">Subscriber Reviews</a> </strong>(what paid subs think about it)</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-benefits-5-downsides">Benefits of Subscribing</a> </strong>(why you should buy)</p></li></ul><p>If you&#8217;re new to <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">The Weekly ChartStorm</a>, or you&#8217;ve been thinking about a subscription but want to see more first, here&#8217;s something for you to try &#8212; a <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/3cc17a9d">3-month Free Trial</a></strong>.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/3cc17a9d&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Claim your 90-day Free Trial&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary button-wrapper" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/3cc17a9d"><span>Claim your 90-day Free Trial</span></a></p><p><strong>Note:</strong> that link will prompt you to go through the usual subscription process, but you will not be charged until the end of your 90-day trial period &#8212; and you will not be charged at all if you cancel prior to the trial end (and yes, you will receive reminders closer to the time).  </p><p>Lastly, be sure to <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/contact">reach out</a> at any time if I can help with anything. I promise to leave no questions unanswered and no problems unsolved.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><p><em><strong>Already a paid subscriber?</strong></em></p><p>Log-in and read the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april">latest report here</a>:</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;c2a24c08-8ed6-4db7-ae92-4b55c3a57fff&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Welcome to the latest Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm!&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:&quot;Read full story&quot;,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm - 5 April 2026&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:30338892,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Head of Research and Founder @topdowncharts  \nLikes: charts, data, macro, multi-asset investing, economics, geopolitics, space, science, hiking, fishing,  golf, mountain biking. &quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f60daa6-cc60-440c-9f55-7106c0be0681_400x400.png&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:1000}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-05T01:19:05.386Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:193149662,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:20,&quot;comment_count&quot;:2,&quot;publication_id&quot;:307912,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 5 April 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: investor sentiment, economic sentiment, seasonality and studies, longs vs shorts, tech sentiment, big tech value, AI output, deadlines, global equity technicals...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 01:19:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Investor Sentiment is down, Economic Sentiment is up.</p></li><li><p>Markets appear to be following the Trump Weave.</p></li><li><p>Oil Shock Analogs highlight the worst case.</p></li><li><p>Tech sentiment is deeply oversold.</p></li><li><p>Global equities are up from oversold +positive April seasonality.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, there seems to be a growing body of evidence for a rebound.   </p><div><hr></div><p>n.b. In case you missed it, check out my Q2 Update to the <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-charts-to-watch-in-2026-q2-update">10 Charts to Watch in 2026</a></strong></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Sentiment Survey Composite:&nbsp;</strong>the combined surveys (4 different surveys) investor sentiment signal is now into net-bearish territory &#8212; this is a stark contrast to one of the most consensus bullish optimism readings around the turn of the year.  </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png" width="1190" height="812" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:812,&quot;width&quot;:1190,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:92490,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193149662?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WRtj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f45b6fd-e7e3-44a2-8922-f7d68a4f4842_1190x812.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;b96e29db-c37f-4dd3-baa7-de9c2de48cb5&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Economic Sentiment:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile the combined surveys (7 surveys) Economic sentiment signal is net optimistic and trending higher.  This is a positive sign for the bulls, basically it says the economy is doing fine, and markets are doing their usual greed-to-fear oscillations. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png" width="1182" height="832" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:832,&quot;width&quot;:1182,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:215950,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/193149662?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6DUg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b869328-c801-4f38-b70a-1b325e1047d1_1182x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. The Weave &#8212; Markets Edition:&nbsp;</strong>here&#8217;s a novel take on seasonality; markets during Trump presidency years (albeit, n of 5).  If markets follow the usual &#8220;Trump Weave&#8221; then we might well be done or nearly done with the current correction.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-5-april">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[10 Charts to Watch in 2026 [Q2 Update]]]></title><description><![CDATA[Key charts and issues for multi-asset investors to keep track of in the year ahead and beyond...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-charts-to-watch-in-2026-q2-update</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-charts-to-watch-in-2026-q2-update</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 02:00:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4265be97-723b-4772-8bf8-9e7963acf6d5_2207x1505.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This &#8220;<a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-chartstorms">Off-Topic ChartStorm</a>&#8221; provides a Q2 Update to my <strong><a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/10-charts-to-watch-in-2026">10 Charts to Watch in 2026</a></strong>.</p><p>In the original article I shared what I thought would be the 10 most important charts to watch for global multi-asset investors in the year ahead (and beyond). In this article I have updated the charts + provided fresh comments.</p><p><em>[Note: I have included the original comments from the start of the year, so you can quickly compare what I&#8217;m thinking now vs what I said back then]</em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1. From Tightening to Tailwinds:</strong> the macro data pulse is looking so-far-so-good despite all the bad news and market volatility, and the key reason is all the monetary easing tailwinds from 2024/25 are having their maximum impact right now.  So as far as I can tell, for now, the global economic reacceleration theme remains on-track.</p><p><em>&#8220;the biggest story in macro of the 2020&#8217;s echoes on into 2026, with monetary policy going from tailwind in 2020 to tightening in 2023, and back to tailwinds again now. This is coming at a time where nascent signs are showing an upturn in the macro pulse from previous stagnation (e.g. the global manufacturing PMI pictured below). The path laid out by the monetary policy leading indicator here is a very interesting one indeed, and it&#8217;s not the only sign.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png" width="1372" height="912" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:912,&quot;width&quot;:1372,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:131681,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gNee!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9e5bc5-58ed-4fae-8c21-060777203544_1372x912.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>2. Global Growth Reacceleration:</strong> reacceleration remains a key word for me, but I am definitely mindful of the global energy markets disruption and potential financial conditions tightening + confidence effects of the Iran War.  It probably does take some steam out of it, but ironically that may ultimately mean that the global growth reacceleration ends up less inflationary than it might have otherwise been (stronger growth but no overheating).</p><p><em>&#8220;the OECD leading indicators are also pointing to a major improvement in the global economy; we are going to need to get used to the term &#8220;reacceleration&#8221; (i.e. a big upturn out of previous slowdown; but not recession). Aside from monetary tailwinds there are several other factors working into this thesis such as fiscal stimulus, thematic capex, inventory cycles, and so-on. But there are a couple of logical flow-on effects we need to watch should this playout as planned.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png" width="1200" height="875" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:875,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:134552,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cS2J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94dc1a70-3f08-4569-8086-56b505747e7c_1200x875.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>3. Inflation Resurgence:</strong> for now inflation remains contained.  I&#8217;m still very much keeping tabs on inflation upside risks (energy market disruption + growth reacceleration + commodity bull market), but at least as of February the trend was one of declining inflation (compare and contrast that to 2021/22 where inflation was accelerating).</p><p><em>&#8220;one key flow-on will almost certainly involve inflation resurgence. We&#8217;ve already seen global inflation rates settling into a new higher range and even begin to turn up. Psychologically there&#8217;s also going to be a greater sensitivity to any signs of renewed inflationary pressures given what we&#8217;ve just gone through in the early-2020&#8217;s.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png" width="1372" height="960" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:960,&quot;width&quot;:1372,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:134385,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ys9O!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae960e3f-5bf7-49a6-b354-014119ed0bd3_1372x960.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>4. Macro Metals:</strong> the growth-sensitive industrial metals complex are confirming the optimistic take on global growth (they broke out late last year, and have held steady so far.  Keep an eye on this market!</p><p><em>&#8220;this one joins the list of charts to watch in the year ahead once again as it&#8217;s going to be a key real-time indicator to track whether the reacceleration and resurgence theme is playing out as planned (i.e. an upside breakout).</em></p><p><em>And interestingly enough, it&#8217;s already made a sharp upside breakout. <a href="https://gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnuggets-industrial-metals">As noted the other day</a>, base metals are playing catch-up vs monetary metals, and this is as much a positive sign for commodities as it is the global economy.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png" width="1405" height="1050" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1050,&quot;width&quot;:1405,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:80174,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oTkW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f2f98a7-d307-462b-b2bb-c6b2c8b320e5_1405x1050.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>5. Cheap vs Expensive:</strong> expensive US stocks and gold have rolled over and neither are cheap yet, meanwhile commodities are turning up (still bullish on commodities in general), and bonds remain cheap.</p><p><em>&#8220;with gold (and stocks) already tracking at expensive levels, the obvious beneficiary from this macro prognosis is going to be cheap commodities. Indeed, if we see global growth reaccelerate and inflation resurgence, commodities are going to be a great hedge against that scenario.</em></p><p><em>But at the same time, don&#8217;t forget about that other cheap diversifier (bonds) in case things don&#8217;t quite work out as planned (more on that in a minute: chart 10).&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png" width="1245" height="817" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:817,&quot;width&quot;:1245,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:166967,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RsdI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98ad7b9c-92a3-4766-a959-94b2e5f90505_1245x817.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>6. Tail of Two Commodities:</strong> it seems the rubber band is snapping back &#8212; as I noted at the start of the year, you always want to pay attention to extremes like this in financial markets because sooner or later they&#8217;ll find a reason to move, and move big.  </p><p>From here, I think gold probably continues to struggle while oil likely is a case of higher for longer as the Middle East mess stays messy (which is very bearish for oil in the longer run as it likely accelerates the energy transition: more EVs, more solar, more work on energy innovation and independence; next-gen nuclear, etc &#8212; which is a good thing for humanity and civilizational progress).</p><p><em>&#8220;within commodities, as noted, gold has already had a very strong run, and may well continue given the strong monetary tailwinds behind it and strong technical momentum. But this chart shows a sort of stretching of the rubber band as oil lags and gold leads. A strong inflationary upturn is going to boost more cyclical commodities like oil (and may take some steam out of gold).&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png" width="1310" height="860" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:860,&quot;width&quot;:1310,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:85328,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Ho!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e56707-1b73-4598-bc3f-8785ee19ac90_1310x860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>7. Emerging Inflection Point:</strong> Q1 saw emerging market equities rise AND fall by double digit percentage points.  It was almost inevitable that we would get a decent pullback in EM at some point given how far and fast they had gone and how consensus and extreme the bullish sentiments had become.  </p><p>But I think the EM pullback is in the &#8220;healthy correction&#8221; category and I see nothing to negate the big inflection point that we have clearly seen in this chart &#8212; this one is going to be measured in years not months or weeks.</p><p><em>&#8220;it&#8217;s also the type of conditions under which emerging markets and global ex-US equities in general do well. And we&#8217;re already witnessing what looks like a major decadal turning point for EM equities.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png" width="1222" height="920" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:920,&quot;width&quot;:1222,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:105370,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rqDs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89b9de25-0b8d-451a-a1bb-e156f8938efd_1222x920.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>8. Newer Higher Plateaus:</strong> on the bearish side, the biggest risk right now [for US stocks] is that the current stockmarket correction ends up triggering a bigger reset in valuations and positioning (from generational highs) and into a bear market.  </p><p>The strong/stable macro probably helps offset this risk, but when you come from a starting point like that in the chart below, small issues can quickly compound and things can deteriorate faster than you expect. So even though I&#8217;d say my comments so far have a bullish hue, this chart tells us to respect risk.</p><p><em>&#8220;one problem is that US equities are already very richly priced and household allocations to equities are at a record highs. Also consider that this is all heavily concentrated in tech, and it points to one thing&#8230;&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png" width="1287" height="860" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/be2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:860,&quot;width&quot;:1287,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:99462,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WOiZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe2e8ea2-a74e-4cf0-ae86-7a5ff95f3c97_1287x860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>9. Dot-Com Echoes:</strong> same thing here, tech is rolling over from its most extreme overvaluation since the dot com bubble and defensives are turning up from similar extreme cheap relative value.  Respect risk &#8212;have a plan, and have a think about capital defense and smart diversification.</p><p><em>&#8220;with US tech stocks trading at the most expensive relative valuations since the height of the dot com bubble &#8211; and defensives trading at the same deep discount, it almost looks too simple... If you want a harbinger chart, if there were ever going to be post-mortem clues that flagged the peak of this market cycle, it&#8217;s probably going to be this chart.</em></p><p><em>While an orderly economic upturn is likely to be supportive, a rapid reacceleration and resurgence in inflation is likely to trigger two things: rotation into beneficiary assets (traditional cyclical stocks, commodities) and out of tech + potentially an upswing in interest rates; which has historically hurt the more long-duration growth-tech stocks.</em></p><p><em>Hence a rethink on asset allocations is going to be required as the things that worked well in the past few years are unlikely to keep delivering in this type of scenario.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png" width="1105" height="842" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:842,&quot;width&quot;:1105,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:84789,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Tl6G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F40b5f9d4-3d44-45c8-8326-5ed3b0352375_1105x842.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><strong>10. Market Cycle Signal:</strong> on the flipside, bond allocations say similar things about the state of the market cycle and the inherent risks [last time bond allocations were this low was just prior to the dot-com bubble burst AND again just before the financial crisis].  </p><p>But also, for contrarians, it says: hey maybe bonds are actually good (seems like everyone hates bonds these days &#8212; everyone is saying how they no longer act as a diversifier to stocks, fiscal problems, low yields, etc etc). </p><p>You know what they say when everyone says the same thing&#8230;</p><p>For me, <strong>bonds are a case of when, not if</strong> (and yes I am working on and monitoring the tactical outlook and timing aspect for bonds: e.g. <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro-themes-20-march-2026">see recent report on treasuries here</a>).</p><p><em>&#8220;lastly, <a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the-week-bond-allocations">this one</a> not only adds to the cautionary tone on the market cycle, but also provides a prompt to have another <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-chartstorm-fixed-income">think on bonds</a>. There&#8217;s two ways we can be wrong on that &#8220;reacceleration&#8221; idea I&#8217;ve been going on about: e.g. more of the same middle-porridge (not too hot, not too cold), or: recession.</em></p><p><em>With bonds trading on cheap valuations and investor allocations to bonds at cycle lows, it makes them a classic contrarian play &#8211;not something to forget about (and yes: bonds are still downturn diversifiers).<strong> </strong>So again, the defensive barbell would be bonds to protect against recession and deflation, vs commodities to protect against a rapid reacceleration and inflation resurgence.</em></p><p><em>The good thing is we&#8217;ll probably get clues along the way, so we can scale-up exposure as evidence unfolds and we build clarity on the next big risks/opportunities.&#8221;</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png" width="1290" height="830" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:830,&quot;width&quot;:1290,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:76044,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/192819614?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lvv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5427b23-d925-49d6-9659-88ebdfa27d3a_1290x830.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2>Quarterly Strategy Pack</h2><p><strong>For more detail and recommendations on the macro/market outlook in 2026</strong> (particularly as it relates to asset allocation and top-down global investment strategy), <strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/s/quarterly-strategy-pack">check out our Q2 2026 Quarterly Strategy Pack</a> </strong>&#8212; which will be published later this week (+webinar and Q&amp;A sessions for our Institutional/Professional service clients).</p><div><hr></div><p>Thanks for reading, questions/thoughts welcome in the comments section + be sure to like and share this post on <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Substack</a>.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>In case you missed it</strong>, also see the<a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march"> latest Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm:</a></p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;ad067a8b-f9d3-4a99-a86e-536c732d23d8&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Welcome to the latest Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm!&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:&quot;Read full story&quot;,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm - 29 March 2026&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:30338892,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Head of Research and Founder @topdowncharts  \nLikes: charts, data, macro, multi-asset investing, economics, geopolitics, space, science, hiking, fishing,  golf, mountain biking. &quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f60daa6-cc60-440c-9f55-7106c0be0681_400x400.png&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:1000}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-29T04:22:56.190Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z7d7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47f47fd9-603c-479a-bda5-a8eb1bb09026_1315x865.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:192418528,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:31,&quot;comment_count&quot;:8,&quot;publication_id&quot;:307912,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><p>Not a subscriber yet?  <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe">Be sure to sign up</a></strong> for more Updates and Charts to help you stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook.</p><div class="embedded-publication-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;id&quot;:307912,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;base_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info&quot;,&quot;hero_text&quot;:&quot;Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook&quot;,&quot;author_name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;show_subscribe&quot;:true,&quot;logo_bg_color&quot;:&quot;#ffffff&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="EmbeddedPublicationToDOMWithSubscribe"><div class="embedded-publication show-subscribe"><a class="embedded-publication-link-part" native="true" href="https://www.chartstorm.info?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_campaign=publication_embed&amp;utm_medium=web"><img class="embedded-publication-logo" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png" width="56" height="56" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span class="embedded-publication-name">The Weekly ChartStorm</span><div class="embedded-publication-hero-text">Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook</div><div class="embedded-publication-author-name">By Callum Thomas</div></a><form class="embedded-publication-subscribe" method="GET" action="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?"><input type="hidden" name="source" value="publication-embed"><input type="hidden" name="autoSubmit" value="true"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email..."><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chart of the Week - Sentiment Shifts]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chart in-focus from the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-sentiment-shifts</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/chart-of-the-week-sentiment-shifts</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 01:10:25 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into The Weekly ChartStorm + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts.</em></p><div><hr></div><p>This week&#8217;s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant.</p><p>This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the VIX (volatility/fear gauge) and the forward PE ratio (being ultimately a measure of investor confidence).  </p><p>The inputs are also smoothed so that it provides the most useful signal to longer-term active investors who are less fixated on the day-to-day news/noise.</p><p><strong>We&#8217;ve seen a significant reset in this indicator already.</strong> </p><p>This says we are close to a major market bottom.</p><p>However we still need to respect risk.  The direction of travel (bearish momentum) from previously euphoric levels of sentiment does suggest caution, and the highest conviction bottoming signals historically came only once it reached or breached the zero-line (like it did in recent years during 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022).</p><p>So it&#8217;s a key chart to have on the radar because even with today&#8217;s news (Trump comments on unilaterally finishing the War) and the enthusiastic rebound in stocks, it&#8217;s entirely possible that we still see another leg down before this episode is all done and over with given the various moving parts and lingering issues.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png" width="1385" height="960" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:960,&quot;width&quot;:1385,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FsSe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5bd7432-7fb8-4ad2-9a06-77f298d2b67b_1385x960.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Bottom line:</strong>  longer-term measures of investor sentiment have seen a major reset already (albeit are yet to approach levels seen around major market bottoms).</p><p><em>p.s. <strong>yes</strong> &#8212;I will update this chart in future editions of <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">The Weekly ChartStorm</a>, so stay tuned!</em></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">The Weekly ChartStorm is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h3><em>Conceptual Notes</em></h3><p>Zooming out from the day-to-day developments, it&#8217;s useful to keep in mind the market cycle conceptual model.</p><p>The reason we want to respect risk in this type of juncture is that the stockmarket is stumbling and rolling over from expensive levels &#8212; this is the zone of maximum risk.</p><p>It&#8217;s entirely possible that we end up getting enough of a reset (in sentiment, valuations, positioning, and maybe even policy too) to engineer a short/sharp correction and resumption of the bull market&#8230; but given the background setup described and what we understand about market cycles, it would pay to be pragmatic about things (balancing the desire for maximum gains from participating in rebounds vs diversification and defense against the potential for further downside).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png" width="1437" height="1105" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1105,&quot;width&quot;:1437,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pcrE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb76eaaf1-7e0c-4f3a-a690-7348ddbaae91_1437x1105.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h3><em>Thanks for reading!</em></h3><p>For more info on the Weekly ChartStorm service see:</p><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/report-samples">Report Samples</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/reviews">Subscriber Reviews</a></strong></p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/10-benefits-5-downsides">Benefits of Subscribing</a></strong></p></li></ul><p>Upgrade to paid to access the latest charts &amp; analysis +join us in this week&#8217;s Q&amp;A discussions.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.chartstorm.info/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Lastly, be sure to <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/contact">reach out</a> at any time if I can help with anything. I promise to leave no questions unanswered and no problems unsolved.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><p><em><strong>Already a paid subscriber?</strong></em></p><p>Read the <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march">latest report here</a>:</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;65c3c1d0-c6f1-4577-b14b-00f22531c16c&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Welcome to the latest Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm!&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:&quot;Read full story&quot;,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Weekly S&amp;P500 ChartStorm - 29 March 2026&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:30338892,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Callum Thomas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Head of Research and Founder @topdowncharts  \nLikes: charts, data, macro, multi-asset investing, economics, geopolitics, space, science, hiking, fishing,  golf, mountain biking. &quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f60daa6-cc60-440c-9f55-7106c0be0681_400x400.png&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:1000}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-29T04:22:56.190Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z7d7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47f47fd9-603c-479a-bda5-a8eb1bb09026_1315x865.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:192418528,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:29,&quot;comment_count&quot;:8,&quot;publication_id&quot;:307912,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;The Weekly ChartStorm&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hY19!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0effcba-d9e7-431e-be37-d016de00810f_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 29 March 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, correlations, leveraged trading, shorts, geopolitics, sentiment, tech valuations, the new TACO, mid-term malaise, cash allocations, concentration...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 04:22:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z7d7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47f47fd9-603c-479a-bda5-a8eb1bb09026_1315x865.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 has broken a key support, bears are in control.</p></li><li><p>Implied correlations + Leveraged ETF trading point to a bounce.</p></li><li><p>Longer-term market cycle indicators highlight risk of bear market.</p></li><li><p>Markets may need to pivot focus from TACO to Fed Put.</p></li><li><p>Midterm malaise c&#8230;</p></li></ul>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-29-march">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 March 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, inversion question, drawdowns, global tech, margin debt, valuations and positioning, earnings revisions, global macro pulse, stock return distributions, emerging markets...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-march</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-march</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 04:02:44 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Stocks are at a make-or-break point (major support level).</p></li><li><p>Conditions are increasingly oversold. </p></li><li><p>Sentiment and valuations have seen a partial reset.</p></li><li><p>(albeit from an overvalued/excess-greed starting point)</p></li><li><p>Pre-war, the global earnings/macro pulse was on a promising path.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, as noted, it&#8217;s a dangerous setup (clear technical deterioration from a starting point of overvaluation and excess-greed, with downside tail-risks for the global economy).  But at the same time, if we&#8217;re going to get a rebound (maybe a combination of no new bad news, or some less bad news) then technically speaking it&#8217;s a bit of a now-or-never moment&#8230;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Technical Check:&nbsp;</strong>my initial reaction on seeing this week&#8217;s technical-check chart is that we went from bad to worse.  But on closer inspection it looks like we&#8217;re sitting at a major support level with 50dma breadth now into proper oversold conditions. Add to that Trump-talk around &#8220;winding down&#8221; military efforts, and a decent (albeit incomplete) reset in sentiment, and it looks like a key juncture.</p><p>(and if we don&#8217;t rally from here, I&#8217;d say next stop is 6000)</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png" width="1456" height="1379" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1379,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:779889,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/191661259?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xh5r!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf204e2-2820-4dac-9953-1ad9965a8bec_1700x1610.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/08007f9b?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Would you buy it?&nbsp;</strong> On that note, as a bias check for bulls, flipping the S&amp;P500 upside down &#8230;it kind of looks bullish (which is not a good thing).  </p><p><em>Credit to <a href="https://www.thechartreport.com/">The ChartReport</a> for inspiring this one.</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png" width="1205" height="822" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:822,&quot;width&quot;:1205,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:67177,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/191661259?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Oqf-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef48cc39-261a-480e-919d-d93906a56ff1_1205x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdownchartspro&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16de72a1-4e95-4e7c-ab73-08cb35abd9ba_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;142b8e97-ec5b-4be1-a2c6-f1e49dbb7f9c&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Drawdown in Context:&nbsp;</strong> worth keeping in mind, 5-10% sell-offs are very common, 10-20% corrections at not uncommon, and 30%+ drops happen ~once per decade (you will likely see multiple of them during your lifetime). And another thing, not all sell-offs turn into bear markets, but all bear markets start as a sell-off!</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png" width="1392" height="947" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:947,&quot;width&quot;:1392,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:67112,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/191661259?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br3x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5d2845-0b85-4bf2-a86c-c2512cf47219_1392x947.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Global Tech Bull&#8230;&nbsp;</strong>on the bearish side, the global tech bull market is steadily losing soldiers; 200-day moving average breadth across countries is down to 50% and the world tech index peaked months ago +is in a (so-far gentle) downtrend.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-march">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 15 March 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technicals check, un-rotation, sentiment, credit spreads, private equity, alternative credit system indicators, sector shifts, and demand destruction...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-march</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-march</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 15 Mar 2026 11:56:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-_db!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F004c1636-a8a2-4f79-b219-76affd6ba844_1830x1730.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Technically things look fairly bearish overall.</p></li><li><p>But recent history shows the tendency for rebounds.</p></li><li><p>And conditions are currently looking notably oversold.</p></li><li><p>Yet there are some vulnerabilities being exposed in private markets.</p></li><li><p>There&#8217;s also still a few positive sig&#8230;</p></li></ul>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-march">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 8 March 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: technical check, downside risk monitor, next steps for software stocks (technicals, positioning, valuations) and energy stocks room to run...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-8-march</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-8-march</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 00:21:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 has broken a key short-term support level.</p></li><li><p>This is from a starting point of stretched sentiment/valuations.</p></li><li><p>(Therefore risk of further downside is elevated.)</p></li><li><p>Software stocks are bouncing from cheap and oversold conditions.</p></li><li><p>Energy stocks are getting a geopolitical boost with room to run.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, the technical picture is enough to make one pause to think. With the various parallels to 2022 it certainly heightens the risk management senses.  And yet there&#8217;s still some very interesting sector setups&#8230;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Here we go Again:&nbsp;</strong>with multiple parallels to 2022 (geopolitical event, commodity price spike &#8212; set against a backdrop of expensive valuations, stretched sentiment), the latest echo is in the technicals.  Take a passing glance at this chart and it does not look good. The index is rolling over, broken through initial support, and breadth is falling but not yet oversold. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png" width="1456" height="1374" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1374,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:708771,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/190113886?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!I3jW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07741c9f-749a-4e69-8920-475e4f05b7d5_1830x1727.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/8f86dee8?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. And the issue is&#8230; </strong>sentiment and valuation indicators are rolling over from stretched levels.  That&#8217;s a key distinction: elevated sentiment and valuations by themselves are not necessarily bad (e.g. if there are offsetting factors) &#8212;but what <em><strong>is</strong></em> bad is when they start falling from stretched levels.</p><p>Just like on the flipside, a true oversold signal is when the indicator falls to oversold levels and then turns up.  A true risk/bearish signal is when indicators like these go to stretched levels and then turn down.  Be alert.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png" width="1205" height="822" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:822,&quot;width&quot;:1205,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:107918,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/190113886?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qnsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2d2f0f-6aa8-4a56-948d-8eb8f903969a_1205x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts Professional&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:1189639,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:null,&quot;photo_url&quot;:null,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;5f386110-3009-401f-bc23-eacf290c30b0&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-8-march">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 1 March 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: monthly charts, rotation, value vs growth and macro/fundamentals, tech capex, AI effects, space sector, downside risks for the stockmarket...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-march</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-march</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:02:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 dropped -0.87% on the month in February.</p></li><li><p>(yet the equal-weighted version <em>gained</em> +3.4% in Feb)</p></li><li><p>(rotation remains a key theme)</p></li><li><p>Value vs growth rotation has clear fundamental support.</p></li><li><p>There are still some compelling causes for optimism.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, the rally in cyclicals/value is helping offset tech-troubles (aka bullish rotation), and there is clear compelling macro-fundamental support to rotation (along with the cooling-off from tech/AI hype).  We&#8217;re probably seeing a classic case of overinvestment in capex on the AI front, but it&#8217;s not all bad news&#8230;<em><strong> </strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Happy New Month!&nbsp;</strong>The S&amp;P500 closed down -0.87% for February, placing it marginally up +0.5% YTD.  The equal-weighted version however gained +3.4% (and is up +6.8% YTD) &#8212; meanwhile the Nasdaq dropped -2.3% in Feb (down -1.1% YTD).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png" width="1365" height="910" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:910,&quot;width&quot;:1365,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:78327,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/189399565?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QHeG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc969f286-6911-4237-912a-c47ed655f99f_1365x910.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:350058,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdowncharts&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96c195d6-d041-4ccd-bf95-c5f75720f48e_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;343c508e-4fcc-4312-acf2-d26976e1f764&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. S&amp;P500 Equal vs Cap Weighted &#8212; Rotation:&nbsp; </strong>as such, the equal-weighted vs cap-weighted relative performance line has surged higher after previously reaching an extreme divergence from trend. This is a classic rotation trade and it reflects both the large-cap <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-chartstorm-tech-stocks">growth/tech side of things running into issues</a> as well as the smaller/cheaper cyclicals seeing better prospects.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png" width="1207" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1207,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77108,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/189399565?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fOvG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32cbd267-db69-41b3-8a67-b12ad1b02276_1207x970.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-march">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 February 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: tech check, the great concentration, AI overflows, newspaper stocks case study, average tenure, baselines, return dispersion, global portfolio, UFOs, commodities...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-february</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-february</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2026 03:10:42 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tbPd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F757a2ab4-6a34-4b75-953a-2f83e4c55a1f_1827x1240.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Bullish rotation remains in play.</p></li><li><p>Tech stocks still look troubled.</p></li><li><p>AI spillovers are helping (already bullish) commodities.</p></li><li><p>Newspaper stocks present a case-study in disruption.</p></li><li><p>Commodity stocks (as a group) look good.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, the US tech vs non-tech and US vs g&#8230;</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-22-february">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 15 February 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: tech wreck check, software stocks, capex vs buybacks, private equity stocks, defensives strategy, energy sector setup...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-february</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-february</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2026 20:57:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-F8U!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05c4fce1-0b6e-4fee-9f7b-3e24c28ec0c7_1110x850.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure.</p></li><li><p>Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels.</p></li><li><p>Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks.</p></li><li><p>Private equity stocks are also coming under pressure.</p></li><li><p>Defensive stocks meanwhile are looking up.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, it&#8217;s fair to say that we are at a challenging juncture in markets.  Tech stocks are coming under pressure, and from a starting point of major overvaluation and historically high allocations.  So it&#8217;s worth keeping a closer eye on risk management and potential upside in defensives, while staying pragmatic with the otherwise still bullish outlook for cyclicals/global/commodities&#8230; </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Going it alone?&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-chartstorm-tech-stocks">as outlined the other day</a>, the US tech sector remains under pressure, and the path of the Nasdaq 100 is presenting a very different picture than that of the equal-weighted S&amp;P500.  So far it has been a case of rotation, with bullish rotation into cyclicals carrying the market for now.  </p><p>But there is a risk that further downside in tech de-rails the bullish rotations and activates more of a defensive/bearish rotation or just plain and simple: downside for stocks in general. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png" width="1456" height="984" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:984,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:511815,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187926905?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D2uZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a1abd94-3252-47a1-8cfa-bca48adb1b35_1835x1240.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/94a1fdc7?via=1371">MarketCharts</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Hard Times for Software:&nbsp;</strong>the epicenter of the tech troubles so far has been software (as AI threatens to topple software IP moats), and we have seen software making major relative declines vs the rest of tech and vs the rest of the market (+major absolute declines e.g. with IGV down more than 30%).  </p><p>It&#8217;s likely that this is somewhat overdone short-term (as the market shoots first asks questions later), but the risk is that it damages investor sentiment and triggers off further waves of weakness in overextended tech stocks (high starting point valuations and allocations).</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-february">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks]]></title><description><![CDATA[Tech has topped, what's next?]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-chartstorm-tech-stocks</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-chartstorm-tech-stocks</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2026 01:32:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a quick &#8220;<a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-chartstorms">Off-Topic ChartStorm</a>&#8221; on (US) Tech Stocks.</p><p>Unlike the usual <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Weekly ChartStorm</a> (which focuses on the US stock market and related issues), the Off-Topic ChartStorm is a semi-regular focus piece with deep-dives into topics spanning macro, markets, stocks, commodities, regions, and various other issues of interest.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this session:</strong></p><ul><li><p>US tech stocks have peaked (+rolled over vs US non-tech, global tech). </p></li><li><p>Sentiment is slumping from previously extreme bullish/complacent.</p></li><li><p>Positioning has also peaked, early signs of rotation showing up.</p></li><li><p>Valuations are ticking down from extreme expensive levels.</p></li><li><p>Stretched valuations reflect strong earnings (but that&#8217;s also a risk). </p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, tech stocks have peaked for now.  The problem is they&#8217;re coming from a starting point of overvalued and overhyped.  The benign/bullish outcome would be a plateau in tech and bullish rotation (into traditional cyclicals, global), while the bearish outcome would be outright downside (and rotation into defensives). This report looks at the evidence so far and weighs the next steps&#8230;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1. Tech Top (Absolute Terms):&nbsp; </strong>as <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-february">mentioned a couple of weeks ago</a>, tech has topped. </p><p>The Nasdaq 100 peaked on the 29th of October 2025, and has not yet made any further new highs since.  Perhaps the only consolation is that it&#8217;s still technically in an uptrend (tracking above its upward sloping 200-day moving average), and most importantly &#8212; it has not outright broken down yet.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png" width="1456" height="1379" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1379,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:803733,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WV33!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74760947-9547-4a02-b63b-bfc370b5f55a_1695x1605.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Tech Top (Relative Terms):&nbsp;</strong>on a relative basis US tech stocks have not only peaked but broken sharply lower vs non-tech stocks.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png" width="1125" height="742" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:742,&quot;width&quot;:1125,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:42694,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J_tZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85202091-38c2-45e1-99b8-d033d4e3925c_1125x742.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:350058,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdowncharts&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96c195d6-d041-4ccd-bf95-c5f75720f48e_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;2c2485b4-00ac-458e-bf26-93555aedc34e&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Tech Top (vs Global):&nbsp;</strong>US tech stocks have also peaked relative to Global (ex-US) tech stocks (and with a confirmed lower high).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png" width="1105" height="740" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:740,&quot;width&quot;:1105,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:38928,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbNT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7037ede5-5f66-4e5f-b0b5-f8ab7e694441_1105x740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Tech Vibe Shift:&nbsp;</strong>we&#8217;ve also witnessed some brutal price action in the Nasdaq&#8217;s old traveling partner (Bitcoin). As a barometer of tech/speculative sentiment, this is clearly painting a gloomy picture. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png" width="1150" height="782" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:782,&quot;width&quot;:1150,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:80887,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!113b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5023d20c-4f2d-45c4-802a-1412902c068c_1150x782.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Flows &amp; Positioning:&nbsp;</strong>similarly, tech sector implied investor allocations have peaked after reaching a record high (not far off 50%(!)), and rolling annual net flows to tech actually peaked at the end of 2024.  So it&#8217;s a picture of former extreme-bullish sentiment peaking and rolling over (a classic bearish technical signal).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png" width="1282" height="985" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:985,&quot;width&quot;:1282,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:64171,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L3vs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6b0064-30d3-4b86-bfb8-7a460c50c94c_1282x985.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>6. Tech Credit:&nbsp;</strong>another intriguing datapoint has been the surge in credit risk pricing for the tech sector.  It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore&#8230;</p><p><em>(that said, spikes in credit risk pricing like this can serve as contrarian signals)</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png" width="1215" height="822" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:822,&quot;width&quot;:1215,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77562,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2vSO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64486ebe-c23b-43aa-bfcd-072ed637b4e6_1215x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>7. Valuations:&nbsp;</strong>all of this (weakening technicals, bearish sentiment signals) is set against a backdrop of expensive valuations.  US Tech stocks have been bid up to extremely expensive levels vs history, vs non-tech, and vs global tech.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png" width="1115" height="812" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:812,&quot;width&quot;:1115,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:130965,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hqjB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1fc1651-245b-4e47-ad0d-8cc81e2ad7dd_1115x812.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>8. Different This Time: </strong>bulls will probably push back about now and say that it&#8217;s different from the last time valuations were this stretched because earnings are on the rise and there&#8217;s a fundamental backing to it.  But I don&#8217;t think we need to invoke &#8220;just like dot-com&#8221; to highlight the risks here, and even if the dream run in tech stocks over the past decade has been backed by rising earnings, you can still have valuations overshoot and investor sentiment get carried away.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png" width="1195" height="832" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:832,&quot;width&quot;:1195,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:92640,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ifec!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d5f3f32-f926-473d-8531-b41495d2589e_1195x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>9. &#8220;Expensive for a Reason&#8221;&nbsp;</strong>for instance, bulls can definitely point to the exceptional profitability of US tech stocks, as illustrated in the chart below (+strong trend in trailing earnings + expectations of continued strong uninterrupted earnings growth into the future).</p><p>But this also presents a vulnerability.  If extremely high tech stock valuations reflect strong profitability, what if profit margins peak and rollover from cyclically extended levels? And if expensive valuations reflect the expectation of strong uninterrupted future earnings growth, what if earnings plateau? or even worse, what if earnings were to decline?</p><p>The big vulnerability here is that you have stretched valuations underpinned by stretched profit margins.  Even if you get only a mild cyclical downturn at some point, that whole confidence structure could come crumbling apart.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png" width="1142" height="737" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:737,&quot;width&quot;:1142,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:81877,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TxSd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb2c3df7-9466-4ea9-ba71-adeafbef5f9d_1142x737.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>10. So what&#8217;s next?&nbsp;</strong>this chart basically lays out the best and worst case for what happens after the peak in tech.  It shows tech stocks&#8217; market cap weight rolling over from record highs, cyclicals&#8217; weight ticking up off the lower end of the range, and defensives&#8217; up from record lows.  And therein lie the clues for the two key scenarios of how the tech-top might unfold from here:</p><p><em><strong>Bullish/Best Case</strong></em> = [Bullish Rotation] in this scenario tech just peaks and plateaus; shifts into more of a ranging regime, or at least a more gradual and volatile up-trend &#8212; but investors basically give up on tech and chase after better returns in Traditional Cyclicals (which is entirely possible as <a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the-week-cyclical-upturn">a </a><strong><a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the-week-cyclical-upturn">global growth reacceleration</a></strong> will disproportionately help traditional cyclicals like industrials, materials, energy, financials, and global stocks).  Under this scenario the market as a whole could continue to move higher, or sideways at worst.</p><p><em><strong>Bearish/Worst Case</strong></em> = [Bearish Rotation] the worst case would be that tech rolls over into a bear market (e.g. as a result of declining valuations, collapsing sentiment, and/or deterioration in earnings/fundamentals).  In that case you&#8217;d likely see rotation out of tech and into defensives, and the stockmarket as a whole declining.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png" width="1300" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1300,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:149522,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187453942?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LczE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c1826b8-159e-49dc-bceb-42606d5d1b1e_1300x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><em>n.b. &#8220;Super Sector&#8221; definitions: Tech+ (technology, communication services, consumer discretionary), Traditional Cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy, financials), Defensives (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) </em></p><div><hr></div><h3>&#8230;well ?</h3><p>The next logical question would be: <strong>&#8220;so which one is it??&#8221;</strong> &#8212; all the evidence I see so far points to the former (<strong>bullish rotation</strong>), and I think there is sound macro/value/technical reasons to expect a continuation of that dynamic.</p><p>The Defensives/Bearish rotation scenario probably only comes through if we tip over into recession, or some kind of shock rattles the system.  From a practical standpoint I will be monitoring technicals first (a breakdown in QQQ would be a key trigger), credit spreads (for further issues in tech or spillovers), and earnings/macro (for a lead on the fundamental side of things).  </p><p>I will update as usual in the regular Weekly ChartStorm when and if I see any of these warning signs or triggers show up, but for now I would be more focused on the upsides (bullish rotation, cyclicals, global) and staying data/facts/chart-driven as things unfold.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><h3>Other services by Topdown Charts</h3><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/">Topdown Charts Professional</a></strong> &#8212;[institutional macro/multi-asset research]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/subscribe">Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service</a></strong> &#8212;[entry-level version of the above]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Weekly S&amp;P 500 ChartStorm</a></strong> &#8212;[US Equities in focus]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://gold.topdowncharts.com/">Monthly Gold Market Pack</a></strong> &#8212;[Gold charts]</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 8 February 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: bullish rotation, cash allocations, investor positioning, global equities, disclosure, EM fund flows...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-8-february</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-8-february</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 02:25:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>The S&amp;P500 equal vs cap weight ratio is at an inflection point.</p></li><li><p>Investor cash allocations are at cycle lows.</p></li><li><p>(equity allocations are at cycle highs)</p></li><li><p>Global vs US equities are also at an inflection point.</p></li><li><p>Despite some overheating in EM equities, there&#8217;s room to run.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, while last week saw some particularly turbulent price action within tech (especially software slumping as a result of AI disruption/threats), we&#8217;ve seen further progress on bullish rotation and bull market broadening.  And in case I didn&#8217;t make myself clear, Rotation is the big theme right now&#8230;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1. Equal/Cap-weight</strong> <strong>Rotation:&nbsp;</strong>chart of the year?</p><p>After a major deviation from long-term trend the equal-weighted version of the S&amp;P500 is rebounding vs the market-cap-weighted version. </p><p>This is partly due to better prospects for some of the previously unloved and undervalued sectors (e.g. energy, materials, staples; real world things that are hard to disrupt by AI and may even benefit), but also the coming-unstuck of some of the previously overhyped and overvalued sectors (e.g. software, which has been heavily sold recently due to AI disruption).  This inflection point seems durable.</p><p><em>(n.b. over the long run equal-weight has tended to outperform cap-weight because valuation mean reversion and creative destruction are the rule)</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png" width="1205" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1205,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77194,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uoco!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a8f14ca-7fe8-43da-90d5-b6f297f5df65_1205x970.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:350058,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdowncharts&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96c195d6-d041-4ccd-bf95-c5f75720f48e_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;6298523e-3ebf-4e94-a5a8-82434fc2caa8&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Equal-Weighted-Winning:&nbsp;</strong>here&#8217;s why &#8212; if you look at the breadth of the S&amp;P500 we are seeing more and more stocks making new 52-week highs (aka bullish broadening) and the SPXEW (equal-weighted S&amp;P500) is making new highs itself and looks great technically.  </p><p>Whereas the Nasdaq 100 peaked months ago (<a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-february">as mentioned last week</a>), and is undergoing the greatest amount of creative destruction in years with it turning out so far that the biggest winners vs losers of AI disruption are actually within tech&#8230; not to mention that many AI winners had probably run a little too far too fast to begin with.  So again, betting on rotation seems like the easy answer.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png" width="1456" height="1376" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1376,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:727759,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6oNX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa648387-87b1-4281-9203-e33fedb20506_1830x1730.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/6b0cbfa9?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Low Cash (Fund Managers):&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile fund managers are simply betting on anything (but cash).  It&#8217;s logical to see cash levels get run down during a bull market like this as investors (and HR/rem committees) tend to punish cash drag.</p><p>From a cycles/timing point of view though, it reminds you a bit of late-2021/early-2022 &#8212; sharp run-downs in cash leave little in the way of dry powder.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png" width="549" height="436" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:436,&quot;width&quot;:549,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:48868,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FvKC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F911bf86b-260c-4cfc-9576-ed465a2c5176_549x436.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/2020137355403841752">@MikeZaccardi</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Low Cash (Retail): </strong>and retail too; surveyed portfolio cash allocations have reached the lowest level since the 2021 market peak.  </p><p>With cash allocations at what you might call warning levels, that bull market broadening and bullish rotation theme better come through!</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png" width="1285" height="822" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:822,&quot;width&quot;:1285,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:99870,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HpDo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F083ef511-611c-43c2-a7e4-51e1fcf3c935_1285x822.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Allocation Heights:&nbsp;</strong>and on the topic of rotation and risk, with equity positioning at the upper end of the range, in lieu of new money in &#8212; rotation is the answer for keeping the bull market machine running. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png" width="743" height="527" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:527,&quot;width&quot;:743,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61355,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0UhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8a0051-631d-4163-ac45-86aa96015812_743x527.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/BlakeMillardCFA/status/2019428047489814820">@BlakeMillardCFA</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>6. Global Equity Bull Market:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile, the global equity bull market is going from strength to strength.  The rotation is not just within US markets, but also US-to-global (and p.s. you can get rotation as a result of new money flowing to global when it might have in the past flowed to US&#8230; as opposed to money flowing out of one market and into the other; so it doesn&#8217;t necessarily have to be zero-sum or minus-sum).  </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png" width="1438" height="1049" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1049,&quot;width&quot;:1438,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bS5o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6694e3a1-0c5e-4e4d-ae02-d1a8f17e7c51_1438x1049.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://himountresearch.substack.com/p/global-bull-market-for-stocks-remains">Global Bull Market For Stocks Remains Intact</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>7. Taking Off:&nbsp;</strong>the global airline industry ETF, JETS is taking off after cruising through a fairly turbulent holding pattern since 2020.</p><p>I thought this one was interesting for a couple of reasons; first it&#8217;s just plane technically interesting, second it&#8217;s an example of some of the cyclical winners that are emerging as part of the bullish rotation trade (both within US markets and globally).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png" width="1200" height="634" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:634,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:27215,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lm7c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e34b57e-2d36-40b2-af4d-f2386fa92d76_1200x634.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/alphacharts/status/2019829723443216440">@alphacharts</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>8. Get Rotated:&nbsp;</strong>back on the global vs US rotation theme, this chart shows relative price performance in the dark blue (clear turning point in progress), and relative earnings performance in the light blue.  We can see that relative valuations have been the biggest mover here, and that&#8217;s not surprising because price moves faster than fundamentals (i.e. we likely see follow-through later-on in relative earnings).  </p><p>But the other thing is it&#8217;s important to emphasize that yellow line &#8212; we are coming from a historically extreme stretched relative value starting point (room to run).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg" width="1200" height="937" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:937,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:90215,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKLX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7baee76a-2d9a-4077-b043-22da7465be27_1200x937.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: &nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/AugurInfinity/status/2019837598311538704">@AugurInfinity</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>9. Buybacks:&nbsp;</strong>one fundamental support to global vs US rotation is that share buybacks are really starting to catch-on around the rest of the world.  As Schroders&#8217; chart below shows, Japan and Europe have significantly closed the buyback gap vs US, and even EM is starting to move (which have historically been a notorious capital diluter). Again: room to run.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png" width="1456" height="781" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/db6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:781,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:477530,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xzld!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6baff6-4b3a-43fc-b692-6990fce1714c_2975x1595.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; Schroders via <a href="https://snippet.finance/buyback-fever/">SnippetFinance</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>10. Disclosure?&nbsp;</strong>in case you haven&#8217;t been tracking it, there&#8217;s been increasing momentum on the concept of &#8220;disclosure&#8221; (basically the idea that the government has been hiding the truth/facts around non-human-intelligence (NHI) contact and &#8220;UAP&#8221; (unidentified anomalous phenomena), including claims of being in possession of NHI technology and running reverse engineering programs e.g. see the recent documentary <em>&#8216;Age of Disclosure&#8217;</em>).</p><p>And now we apparently have a way to invest in this, what could be one of the biggest macro-market themes of all time with Tuttle launching its new <strong><a href="https://www.thetruthisoutthereufod.com/">UFOD</a></strong> ETF.</p><p>It&#8217;s been one of my many niche interests for years, and my read is there are a lot of breadcrumbs leading to there being something to this&#8230; BUT, as much as I find the topic interesting and this idea cool, the possibility field is far too wide open at this point &#8212;it&#8217;s hard to know who will win/lose when we don&#8217;t know what the news might be, when it might come, or the specifics/timing/impact, etc. </p><p>In other words, I would say I am certain that there is life out there (and easy to make the case for contact/visitation), but uncertain on the impact and timing that some sort of Disclosure Day might have (and ultimately, from the experience of recent years you can guess the geopolitical event right, but get the market impact wrong!).  In any case, I&#8217;ll be watching this with interest.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png" width="461" height="622" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:622,&quot;width&quot;:461,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:452570,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RAQf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa889de56-1f96-4b95-a712-c8289103778a_461x622.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2019511770243822044">@EricBalchunas</a> &amp; <a href="https://x.com/TuttleCapital/status/2020139437728886988">@TuttleCapital</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>Thanks for reading, I appreciate your support!</strong> </p><div><hr></div><h4><strong>Portfolio Strategy Notes &#8212; EM Fund Flows</strong></h4><p>Back down to earth, a number of sources have reported <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2018346664684064800">massive fund flows into Emerging Market Equities</a>, e.g. as <a href="https://www.strategasasset.com/commentaries/etf-video-concentration-and-themes-update/MjQy">Strategas Asset Management</a> highlights in the chart below.</p><p>This raises the question of whether this is too much too fast, or whether the EM rotation trade might be overcooked.  </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png" width="1456" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:636972,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR7o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01e00d82-cb6f-4ff0-b409-eced396af9b8_1710x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>My first thought would be that we should entirely expect to see this sort of dynamic at a true inflection point and trend change.  I&#8217;d also point out that we care more about flows and sentiment as a contrarian indicator <em>later in an aging and tired uptrend</em> vs at the start of a new bull market.</p><p>But the other thing I&#8217;d highlight is flows are&#8230; the flow, and the stock (allocations) are another thing entirely.  If we look at investor allocations to EM equities it&#8217;s only just waking up from long-term decline and slumber.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png" width="609" height="390.20047169811323" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:815,&quot;width&quot;:1272,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:609,&quot;bytes&quot;:94459,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iPyt!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd450ffb6-dc7f-4090-bc4c-342d5e76739b_1272x815.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>And just look at the numbers: EM equity mutual fund market share is 3% and ETF market share is about 4.5% &#8212; that contrasts to EM equities global market cap weight of around 15% (which is tracking below it&#8217;s long-term up-trend) and EM economies&#8217; GDP weight north of 50% (and rising).  </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png" width="607" height="412.97504025764897" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:845,&quot;width&quot;:1242,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:607,&quot;bytes&quot;:72569,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/187218957?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9bm-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9e05ef1-c97f-45be-ae53-64ebcd82815f_1242x845.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>So yes, I would say EM flows and sentiment are getting heated, but actual allocations are just thawing from a deep-freeze ice-age.  And if you go off the stats I mentioned above, investors in aggregate are deeply underinvested.</p><p>Room to run.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><h3>NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts</h3><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/">Topdown Charts Professional</a></strong> &#8212;[institutional research service]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/subscribe">Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service</a></strong> &#8212;[entry-level version]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Weekly S&amp;P 500 ChartStorm</a></strong> &#8212;[US Equities in focus]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://gold.topdowncharts.com/">Monthly Gold Market Pack</a></strong> &#8212;[Gold charts]</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 1 February 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week: monthly charts, positive January implications, bitcoin rotation, growth/tech risks, value vs growth, drawdown stats, bullish rotations in global equities...]]></description><link>https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-february</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-february</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Callum Thomas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 2026 01:54:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the latest <a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/getting-started">Weekly S&amp;P500 #ChartStorm</a>!</p><p><strong>Learnings and conclusions from this week&#8217;s charts:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Stocks closed up in January (equal-weight beat cap-weight).</p></li><li><p>A positive January is a positive sign for the rest of the year.</p></li><li><p>Seeing apparent rotation out of crypto into precious metals.</p></li><li><p>Also seeing rotation from growth/tech to value/cyclicals.</p></li><li><p>Signs are it&#8217;s a case of &#8220;bullish rotation&#8221; (broadening bull).</p></li></ul><p><strong>Overall</strong>, we&#8217;ve managed to get off to a decent start to the year with the gains and bullish rotations of January.  There are a few risk spots to keep tabs on (price action in crypto, tech/growth), but the relative strength in some of the more cyclical parts of the market raise the prospect of a bullish broadening&#8230;   </p><div><hr></div><p><em>n.b. see the new and refreshed <strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/p/reviews">Subscriber Reviews</a></strong> section (useful if you&#8217;re new here or would like to refer a friend; as it gives a good summary of the service).</em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Happy New Month!&nbsp;</strong>the (market cap weighted) S&amp;P 500 closed up +1.4% for January, however the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 gained +3.3% &#8212; a reflection of some of the rotation trades in play at the moment.  Big picture, the uptrend/bull-market is still well intact.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png" width="1380" height="925" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:925,&quot;width&quot;:1380,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:77791,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FyeS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58b34839-e7d9-4b5d-9656-5f601e1e9524_1380x925.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <span class="mention-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Topdown Charts&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:350058,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;pub&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://open.substack.com/pub/topdowncharts&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96c195d6-d041-4ccd-bf95-c5f75720f48e_345x345.png&quot;,&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;9a95a019-6c3a-4dc1-a5d8-f5960d0da5ee&quot;}" data-component-name="MentionToDOM"></span> </p><div><hr></div><p><strong>2. Up January, Up Year?&nbsp;</strong>with the modest gain of +1.4% in January, we now have the &#8220;positive January&#8221; seasonality curve in play. Historically a positive January has been a positive sign (likely reflecting a combination of momentum effects and the absence of material bad macro news to de-rail things).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg" width="700" height="278" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/da445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:278,&quot;width&quot;:700,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:25523,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PS91!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda445103-4b29-4aa4-bc77-dca78393fa13_700x278.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/RyanDetrick">@RyanDetrick</a> via <a href="https://x.com/JasonLeavitt/status/2016902629868110146">@JasonLeavitt</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>3. Up-January Detailed Stats:&nbsp;</strong>but all good students of the market know that averages can deceive, and that your mileage may vary.  The below analysis shows subsequent rest-of-year performance whenever January was an up-month.  </p><p>Overall the odds are good (average gain of +12.2%, positive 87% of the time), but it should be noted that this rule of thumb failed 13% of the time (a little over 1 in 10 instances were negative).  Come to think of it, almost all of those fails involved adverse macro shocks, such as rising rates/bond yields (which is a timely reminder to keep an eye on inflation upside risk this year as the outlook for commodities and the global economy looks up).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg" width="1200" height="912" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:912,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:124679,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaQs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9b394ea-2eaa-42b0-9eb5-d8a229a8c917_1200x912.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/TheMarketStats/status/2016492046773821853">@TheMarketStats</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>4. Growth &amp; Bitcoin:&nbsp;</strong>back on the topic of rotation, this excellent chart illustrates how we appear to be seeing a rotation out of past winners (speculative tech/growth) as traditional cyclicals and commodities are beginning to take the upper hand.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg" width="1200" height="637" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:637,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:59610,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c40!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F570490bc-39ba-4275-b9c6-f6787cc0471a_1200x637.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/itmrandy/status/2017273224694800440">@itmrandy</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>5. Speculative Rotation:&nbsp;</strong>but another part of this is precious metals &#8212; if you just look at the chart below of implied investor allocations, crypto has tumbled off the highs, and precious metals have surged.  And then with Friday&#8217;s silver flash crash, it almost seems like the crypto crowd has migrated over to commodity land!</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png" width="1172" height="862" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:862,&quot;width&quot;:1172,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:81655,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aE-x!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe910e750-eae7-4e43-875e-f6094d6311fc_1172x862.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>6. Peak Performance &#8212; Growth vs Value:&nbsp;</strong>back on the growth vs value rotation, I think it&#8217;s important to zoom out from that very interesting short-term chart to the equally interesting long-term chart.  That looks like a peak and a peak in a series that looks extended from long-term average.  </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png" width="925" height="627" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:627,&quot;width&quot;:925,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:56069,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qCPZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88530141-fcc9-40a1-8af8-b828e17d236a_925x627.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>7. Tech-Top:&nbsp;</strong>on the growth side of things, the Nasdaq 100 looks like it&#8217;s wearing a hat &#8212; and the last couple of times it wore a hat, things didn&#8217;t turn out too well (late-2021, early-2025).  Not only has it stalled at resistance, but we can factually say that the Nasdaq peaked months ago (no new high yet), and over 40% of the index are tracking below their 200-day moving averages &#8212; so growth/tech is on-notice here.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png" width="1450" height="1380" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1380,&quot;width&quot;:1450,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:613424,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o9CB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffcbc345f-c972-4c8a-ab02-00e36142847e_1450x1380.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://marketcharts.com/page/e9c8aa2c?via=1371">MarketCharts.com</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>8. Global Tech Stocks:&nbsp;</strong>similarly, if we look at global tech (TMT = Technology, Media, Telecommunications &#8212; a more broader definition of tech that brings back in some of the stocks that have been reclassified out of the GICS tech sector over time) &#8212;&#8212; the global tech index has likewise stalled and 200-day moving average country breadth has rolled over from the highs (a warning sign).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png" width="1097" height="725" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:725,&quot;width&quot;:1097,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61016,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tpXs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d255afc-b251-487f-baad-eaf46b86ddb1_1097x725.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>9. Tech &amp; the Rest:&nbsp;</strong>meanwhile back on the US tech sector, this stall and peak in tech + peak in growth vs value comes as tech&#8217;s market cap weighting peaked at a record high (meanwhile defensives are tentatively basing around record lows, and more importantly &#8212; traditional cyclicals turning up from 2020-lows). </p><p>Traditional cyclicals (industrials, financials, energy, materials) are more directly geared to global growth reacceleration and commodities, so we could easily be witnessing the initial phases of a bullish rotation (e.g. where you might see tech plateau and range, while cyclicals surge and the bull market simply broadens out vs breaks).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png" width="1302" height="907" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:907,&quot;width&quot;:1302,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:149027,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0lK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a0ae94c-1cee-4180-8bf9-6010d272345b_1302x907.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><strong>10. Drawdown Probabilities:&nbsp;</strong>but on the topic of breaks, the last chart here is an interesting and useful perspective-builder on the frequency of differing levels of drawdowns.  Basically most investors will see many 10-20% corrections, and at least a few larger drops in their lifetimes.  Which is a reminder to have a plan, process, and psychology to navigate through the noise and larger cycles and shifts.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png" width="664" height="270.8421052631579" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:248,&quot;width&quot;:608,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:664,&quot;bytes&quot;:20744,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vwia!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2be902bf-ed9f-48ea-b6b5-a50b873a96ba_608x248.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source:&nbsp; <a href="https://x.com/charliebilello">@charliebilello</a> via <a href="https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/2017234342334832892">@PeterMallouk</a></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>Thanks for reading, I appreciate your support!</strong> </p><div><hr></div><h4><strong>Portfolio Strategy Notes &#8212; Global/Small/Value</strong></h4><p>On the topic of rotation, I thought it would be good to share a couple of charts from my latest <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro-themes-30-january-2026">Topdown Charts institutional weekly report</a> &#8212; they focus on the &#8220;Global Equities Relative Value Trinity&#8221; of small vs large, value vs growth, and global vs USA.  As you can see all 3 are currently making an effort at turning the corner after an extended period of underperformance.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png" width="616" height="397.3435114503817" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:845,&quot;width&quot;:1310,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:616,&quot;bytes&quot;:82908,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vX5S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0901c09a-f8e3-44cb-bdf8-1ed0246c02c6_1310x845.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The reason we&#8217;re interested in these what have been uninteresting and uninspiring parts of of the market is how extreme and historically stretched the relative value indicators are for all 3 of these pairs:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png" width="1297" height="850" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:850,&quot;width&quot;:1297,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:137243,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G_zV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e855b44-57dd-4041-95b8-bec2e74ae7c1_1297x850.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>But here&#8217;s an especially intriguing angle to it &#8212; the absolute value indicator for the combined US/Large/Growth has peaked and at least for now plateaued, meanwhile the black line is playing catch-up (Global/Small/Value).  This is what we call &#8220;Bullish Rotation&#8221; &#8212; where the laggard catches up to close the gap&#8230; as opposed to Bearish Rotation, which would be where the previous leader catches down.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png" width="1302" height="855" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:855,&quot;width&quot;:1302,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:118106,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.chartstorm.info/i/186258181?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5BF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F09753330-249c-4c99-b2ca-34dae35a279e_1302x855.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>While it is early days in the move, due to the extremes on display and the prospect of this being a virtuous bullish rotation &#8212; this is a highly significant (bullish) development for the global equity bull market in general, but also for upside in some of the previously overlooked and undervalued parts of the market.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Best wishes,<br>Callum Thomas</p><p>Founder &amp; Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm<br>and Head of Research at <a href="https://www.topdowncharts.com/">Topdown Charts</a></p><p>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas">https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas</a><br>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/</a></p><div><hr></div><h3>NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts</h3><ul><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.topdowncharts.pro/">Topdown Charts Professional</a></strong> &#8212;[institutional research service]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/subscribe">Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service</a></strong> &#8212;[entry-level version]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://www.chartstorm.info/">Weekly S&amp;P 500 ChartStorm</a></strong> &#8212;[US Equities in focus]</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://gold.topdowncharts.com/">Monthly Gold Market Pack</a></strong> &#8212;[Gold charts]</p></li></ul><div><hr></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>